Bob Davie and the New Mexico Lobos have their ground game churning. For the second straight week, they ran wild on a defense that was supposed to be one of the top run defenses in the country and are looking unstoppable on the ground. In College Football Week 8, the Lobos will face a much easier defensive test than their last two games against Air Force and Boise State when they play host to the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks.
This contest in Week 8 of the college football season will go down Saturday, October 22, 2016, at 9 p.m. ET at Branch Field at University Stadium. It will be broadcast on ROOT.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Mexico -16
Louisiana Monroe +16
Over/Under 64.5
Odds Analysis
New Mexico’s offense has been one of the better units in the country this season and that has led to a lot of overs cashing. The average Lobos game has 73.5 points in it so it’s no surprise that the over is 6-0 so far on the year.
With Louisiana Monroe, it’s been a tale of two seasons. The Warhawks started the season with three straight covers and almost knocked off Sun Belt power Georgia Southern. In the second half of the year though, the Warhawks have failed to cover a spread although the over has hit in each of those games.
There has been a lot of early movement in this match-up. The spread opened up late Sunday night with New Mexico as a 12.5-point favorite and that line quickly moved to 16. That’s good news if you wanted to bet on the Warhawks, but Lobos bettors probably won’t see a better number than that opener.
Matchup to Watch
Things are really simple with the Lobos. They want to run, run, and run some more. New Mexico has already tallied over 2100 yards and 22 touchdowns on the ground this season and is averaging 6.49 yards per carry.
It’s not any one person that’s doing it either with the Lobos, but a system. Five different players are at least averaging six carries per game in Davie’s adapted triple-option scheme and they are currently sitting No. 2 in the nation in rushing offense.
That unit will go head-to-head with a Warhawks defense that has had trouble stopping the run this year. Louisiana Monroe is giving up 5.59 yards per run and will likely get gashed with a bunch of freshmen and sophomores in the two-deep of their 4-2-5 defense.
Letdown Spot
The big fear for New Mexico here is with this game being a potential letdown spot. The Lobos just played the two toughest teams on their schedule in back-to-back weeks in Boise State and Air Force and now take a break from conference play before flying out to Hawaii next week.
It could be tricky getting up for this one, especially with this team focused on doing as well as it can in conference play. Also adding to the potential for a letdown here, the attendance for this game will probably be pretty low.
Free ATS Pick
This is a game that New Mexico should unequivocally dominate. Although the Lobos defense has some major question marks, the Warhawks offense is nothing special, averaging just 5.59 yards per play. Not only that, but Louisiana Monroe just lost starting QB Garrett Smith for the remainder of the season and will have to go with a freshman in Will Collins. Collins may have led the team to a victory last week against Texas State, but is extremely raw and New Mexico can confuse him.
As long as the Lobos have their minds in the right place, they will roll here. The ground game will rip off huge chunks of yardage and be able to coast to an easy win.
College Football Odds: Lobos 45, Warhawks 20
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
