It’s been a great start to the season for the Navy Midshipmen. Although they lost to the Air Force and likely won’t be able to win the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, Navy is sitting pretty at 3-0 in the conference and in the driver’s seat for the West Division after stunning Houston two weeks ago. If the Midshipmen want to stay in control of their own destiny though, they will have to defeat the Memphis Tigers when they come to town in Week 8 College Football.
This contest in Week 8 of the college football season will go down Saturday, October 22, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. It will be broadcast on CBSS.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Navy +3
Memphis -3
Over/Under 56.5
Odds Analysis
The Midshipmen pulled off a pretty big upset when they knocked off Houston two weeks ago, and have been a solid team ATS. Navy is 3-1-1 against the number this season and 12-5-1 ATS dating back to 2015.
Memphis hasn’t been as solid ATS this year as it was last year, but the Tigers are still getting wins and that’s what matters. The Tigers have failed to cover three straight, but have been close to the number in all three and would have covered teasers.
Despite the Tigers’ ATS struggles, early action is on Memphis. Memphis opened as a 1.5-point road favorite and the line quickly jumped to a field goal.
Last Year’s Meeting
When these two teams met last season, turnovers and Memphis’ inability to stop the triple-option were the deciding factors. The Tigers couldn’t hold onto the ball and the Midshipmen made them pay for it each time. Memphis had four fumbles, two lost, and an interception and that killed the momentum for a team that had won 15 straight and was ranked in the Top 15 coming into that game.
Navy’s running game also played a pretty big factor in demoralizing Memphis and leading a rout of the Tigers. The Midshipmen had some troubles getting the triple-option going at first, but then kicked it into gear late. Navy ended up rushing for a whopping 374 yards and dominated time of possession, preventing Paxton Lynch and the Tigers’ quick-strike offense to mount much of a comeback.
Matchup to Watch
Last season, Navy tore up Memphis on the ground, but it may not have the same success this time around. Keenan Reynolds is gone and while Will Worth has been a solid replacement, he is no Reynolds. The Midshipmen are averaging a bit over 5 yards per carry on the ground this season, but were held in check by good defenses.
The Tigers have been much better stopping the run this season, shutting down most opponents’ run games. They are giving up just 4.1 yards per carry up to this point and while they are bad at stopping the pass, that doesn’t matter against a team like Navy.
Free ATS Pick
Memphis QB Riley Ferguson has to be excited about facing Navy. Ferguson has faced tough defenses the last two weeks in Temple and Tulane and this will be his chance to atone. The Midshipmen have one of the worst pass defenses in the nation, allowing over 8 yards per attempt. They made mediocre quarterbacks like Bryant Shirreffs and Nate Romine look like world beaters and Ferguson could have huge numbers against them.
The betting public are going to be very confused when they see this spread. Navy is still fresh in their minds after the big win over Houston, but Memphis is favored even though its best win so far has been against Temple. This is one of those games where Vegas is begging for people to take Navy so don’t fall into that trap. Lay the points with Memphis and come out looking smart on Sunday.
College Football Odds: Tigers 36, Midshipmen 24
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