The North Carolina Tar Heels have gone through a roller coaster of a season, and it’s only Week 8. The team is in a good spot right now as it is nationally ranked after a win over Miami and sits atop the ACC Coastal Standings.
North Carolina will aim to remain ahead of the pack when they face off against the Virginia Cavaliers. The Tar Heels are on the road but will still be more than a touchdown favorite to emerge victorious. North Carolina is 5-2 on the season while Virginia is only 2-4, but the Cavaliers will aim to keep this one competitive.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 8 game is set for Saturday, October 22, 2016, at 3 p.m. ET at Scott Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Carolina -8
Virginia +8
Over/Under 68
Odds Analysis
The Tar Heels will have to pull away in order to cover, which isn’t always a given on the road, even against an inferior opponent. With that being said, about two-thirds of the early money is coming in on North Carolina to cover this spread.
The “under” is being chosen at 71.8 percent as the scoring total may be too high.
North Carolina is 4-3 against the spread this season, including 2-0 on the road. Virginia has covered four out of five times as the underdog and will aim to do that again.
Matchup to Watch
North Carolina rush defense vs. Virginia running game - The Cavaliers have been better at passing than rushing in 2016, but the Tar Heels’ big defensive weakness is stopping the run, so it makes sense to try to take advantage of that.
North Carolina has given up 216 yards per game on the ground, an extremely high number for a ranked team. The Tar Heels are giving up 28.9 points per game in large part because they have trouble slowing down opposing running game.
While Virginia only averages 114.2 yards per game on the ground, it could lean on running back Taquan Mizzell. He has 64 carries for 355 yards and three touchdowns on the season.
Letdown situation
The Tar Heels have gone through a gauntlet in the early portion of the schedule, knocking off ranked foes Florida State and Miami while losing to nationally ranked Georgia and Virginia Tech.
They faced three ranked teams in a row and now get a reprieve against an under-.500 Virginia team, and it would be natural to not be as sharp as in the past.
North Carolina will aim to fight that tendency, because letting Virginia hang around could give the Cavaliers come confidence to pull off the upset.
Free ATS Pick
North Carolina has some good wins this season, and is a half-game ahead of Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech in the ACC Coastal conference standings. Virginia hasn’t done as well, but has a win over Duke and hung around against Pitt.
The Tar Heels have been hard to figure this year, and this one could be another head-scratcher. They are the more talented team, but this one may stay uncomfortably close throughout.
North Carolina has experience in close games, winning by two points over Florida State and by one over Pittsburgh, and could be in line for another nail-biter.
Quarterback Mitch Trubisky has been very good this season, and in the end he should do enough to get North Carolina the win, but expect the Cavaliers to register the cover in this matchup.
Even though neither defense is great, this one could be a little sloppy, which would result in the “under” being the right call on the scoring total. The Tar Heels have registered a handful of unexpected results through the first half of the season, and another one will come, although in the end they will emerge victorious.
College Football Odds: North Carolina 33, Virginia 27
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