The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have had a pretty wild start to their season. Western Kentucky has been on the wrong side and the right side of a one-point game and could just as easily be either 3-4 or 6-1 right now instead of 4-3. Their one-point win on the road against Middle Tennessee State last week kept them in contention for a division title, but their opponent in College Football Week 8 is the Old Dominion Monarchs, who are currently sitting at 2-0 in conference.
This contest in Week 8 of the college football season will go down Saturday, October 22, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Houchens-Smith Stadium. It will be broadcast on AMSN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Western Kentucky -13.5
Old Dominion +13.5
Over/Under 66
Odds Analysis
Western Kentucky has been a very good team under coach Jeff Brohm, but has gotten a little too much respect from Vegas this season. After covering its season opener against Rice, the Hilltoppers have failed to cover each of their last six, including two outright losses as a favorite.
While the Hilltoppers have lost bettors money all season long, the Monarchs have been a profitable team for bettors. Old Dominion is 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS and the two losses against the number came by a combined 5.5 points. Interestingly enough though, each of the games the Monarchs covered was as a favorite while they failed to meet the number in games they were underdogs.
Player to Watch
It’s hard to replace someone who was the face of your program, but Mike White has had to do just that after Brandon Doughty went to the NFL. White had some growing pains through the first few games of the season, throwing a pick in three of his first four after dominating Rice in the season opener.
However, he has come into his own the last few games and the offense has been humming under his command. White led the Hilltoppers to 96 points in road games against Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee State in each of the last two weeks and is now averaging 9.24 yards per pass attempt on the year. He looks to be comfortable in the system and should put up big numbers the rest of the year.
Key Stats
If you’re looking to bet on Old Dominion here, tread carefully because there are two major areas where the Monarchs are awful.
First, the red zone defense has been horrible for Old Dominion this season, especially considering the level of its competition. The Monarchs have allowed opponents to score on 91.67 percent of their opportunities in the red zone on the year. Even worse, of the 22 times opponents have scored in the red zone on this team, 19 of the scores have been touchdowns.
In addition to those numbers, the kicking game has been really bad for Old Dominion. The Monarchs have gone through four kickers at this point and are hitting just 83.33 percent of their extra point attempts. No kicker has hit a field goal longer than 38 yards for ODU this season and that means the Monarchs have to get to their opponents’ 20 to score points.
Free ATS Pick
Old Dominion is going to be able to score some points on WKU. The Monarchs have a competent dual-threat quarterback in David Washington and are averaging 5.2 yards per carry to this point. They have only turned the ball over four times on the year and must not lose possession if they want to get a win here.
The Hilltoppers haven’t been good to bettors this year, but this is a deflated spread. Western Kentucky should be favored by 3-4 points more but people are gun shy to put their money on the Hilltoppers based on this season’s results. Don’t be surprised to see a Western Kentucky blowout here.
College Football Odds: Hilltoppers 45, Monarchs 24
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