It’s all falling apart for the Oregon Ducks. Once one of the model programs in the entire country, it has been a tough season in Eugene. Oregon has lost four straight and is winless in three tries in the Pac-12 conference. The Ducks were embarrassed at home by 49 points by Washington last time out and hopes to end the spiral on the road in Week 8 against the California Bears.
The Bears are only at 3-3 on the season, but Oregon’s struggles have been so pronounced that California is the home favorite in this matchup. The conference crown seems unlikely for either team, so this win is more about getting eligible for a bowl game down the road.
This contest in Week 8 of the regular season will go down Friday, October 21, 2016, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oregon +2.5
Cal -2.5
Odds Analysis
A pair of significant injuries kept this spread off the board early in the week but the oddsmakers must now feel like they have a good enough handle on the health of some key players for California.
The Bears are the slight favorites, and more than 55 percent of the betting action is going to them to cover this spread.
Oregon has underperformed expectations this season, so it’s not much of a surprise that the Ducks are 0-5-1 against the spread thus far. Cal has been better, with a 3-3 mark when trying to cover, including 2-1 at home.
Injury Report
The Golden Bears have two key members of their prolific offense banged up. Quarterback Davis Webb injured his hand last time out against Oregon State and had trouble gripping the ball at times, but is expected to play.
Keep an eye on Webb’s status, because he is a huge piece of the puzzle. He has put up obscene numbers this season, completing 183-of-301 passes for 2,256 yards with 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Webb’s top receiver is Chad Hansen, and he’s another player nursing an injury. Hansen suffered an ankle injury against the Beavers but did have the bye week to rest it. He has 59 catches for 770 yards with eight touchdowns on the year.
If Webb or Hansen misses the game, it certainly cuts into California’s ability to defend its home field and pick up this victory.
Key Stat
40. Both teams are allowing more than 40 points per game on the season, which puts each of them among the worst nationally in scoring defense.
The Pac-12 has a lot of pass-heavy and high-tempo teams -- and both of these programs qualify -- but it’s still not a good sign when the defenses get shredded on such a regular basis like this.
The Ducks bottomed out last time out when Washington put up 70 points. Cal’s worst defensive game of the year came when Arizona State scored 51 a few weeks ago.
Both teams have really struggled against the run. Oregon has allowed 238 rushing yards per game while Cal has given up a whopping 283.8 yards per game on the ground. The Ducks have allowed 522.3 total yards per game while the Bears have given up 494.7 total yards per contest.
Free ATS Pick
Oregon won its first two games of the season, and even after a close loss to Nebraska, most expected to see the Ducks in the hunt for the Pac-12 North. Instead, they lost a close one to Colorado and then got blown out by Washington State and Washington.
It’s fair to wonder if the Ducks can rebound from such a tough stretch, but will aim to do so against Cal.
The Bears didn’t have as high of expectations entering the season and have played pretty much to form. Cal is aiming to make a bowl game and a big home win here would be a good step.
The Bears should send the Ducks further reeling with an entertaining victory as long as Webb can play, and he will help them cover the spread.
College Football Odds: California 45, Oregon 37
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