Off a big win, snapping their four game losing streak and improving to 2-5, the San Jose State Spartans will hope the momentum helps them at least stay in the game during their Week 8 matchup against a highly-favored San Diego State Aztecs team with one of the nation’s best rushers and a defense stacked to dominate the Spartans. The Aztecs are at home with a spread roughly in line with their last win over San Jose State.
Watch this regular season Week 8 matchup live on Thursday, October 21, 2016, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Qualcomm Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Jose State +23.5
San Diego State -23.5
Odds Analysis
With the odds starting at -22 in favor of the home team, bettors continue to doubt San Jose’s defense even after a good performances against Nevada. We saw the Aztecs top the Spartans by more than those 22-points on the road last year and the big guns for San Diego State are back. They should be able to outperform last year’s victory at home.
The early indications seem to indicate most bettors would agree as the spread has jumped a point and a half.
Matchup to Watch
As always, keep a close eye on Donnel Pumphrey. The dominant Aztec back, and all-time program leader in rushing yards, has a great matchup against a Spartan rush defense ranked No. 113 in the nation. The defense in generally has been bad and is a big reason for the team’s four game losing skid.
Of course, San Jose State did have a surprisingly strong defensive performance against Nevada last week, beating them and covering the spread 14-10. Not only was those 10 points the fewest the Spartans have allowed all season, but it was the first time the opposition failed to score at least 34-points. That’s how bad San Jose State was defensively heading into last weekend.
Did the Spartans figure something out defensively? Maybe, but we haven’t seen enough to assume last week was anything more than a fluke and a result of a weak offensive opponent. Nevada isn’t an offensive powerhouse no matter how you slice it and they had a number of plays breakdown. That was more a statement on the Wolf Pack offense than the Spartan defense.
Back to Pumphrey, he’s one of the sports’ best rushers right now and he can exploit a porous San Jose line. The Aztecs need to feed the ball to Pumphrey as their offense is driven by the run. They’re scoring 30.8 PPG which is respectable, but their offense is sputtering in the air.
The simple answer for the Spartans to have a second straight good defensive performance is stopping Pumphrey and making San Diego State prove they can move the ball in the air, but there’s just not enough talent on the San Jose State line to do that.
Look for Pumprhey to have another massive game. He’s already rushed for 1,111 yards and 11 touchdowns, racking up 6.7 yards per carry despite his heavy usage. The senior back has already produced three games of at least 220 yards. Friday could—and probably should, given the matchup—be number four.
Key Stat
San Diego State has had 16 chances in the red zone and has converted 12 of those 16 chances into touchdowns. That’s three-quarters of their opportunities ending with the ball crossing the goal line. Two more of those chances ended in field goals.
A strong running game is usually at play in statistics like this and with nine of those 12 touchdowns on the ground, that’s certainly a key component. That’s the type of edge a runner like Pumphrey provides.
Alternatively, San Jose State doesn’t have as reliable of a running game and have turned just 11-of-20 chances in the red zone into a touchdown.
On the flip side, the Spartan defense has given up 12 rushing touchdowns in the red zone. San Diego State has given up just seven red zone touchdowns in all, only finding themselves in 10 different red zone situations all year long.
Free ATS Pick
Pumphrey should be able to run basically at will against the Spartans and will be the focal point of this offense. He single-handedly gained the entire San Jose State offense in their last meeting. He’s also out-rushed the second most prolific runner in college football—Jamaal Williams—by 169 total yards.
Once San Diego State grabs an early lead, they game will be in their court. They’re a team focused on the rush and a strong defense that’s allowed just 10-combined points over their last two games.
The Aztecs are tough on the opposing quarterbacks, but are beatable in the air early as their secondary typically locks things down after the first quarter. The Spartans will need to score early if they’re going to score much at all. Don’t count on that.
We’ve saw a 23-point win last year and that was in San Jose. The spread is right there this time, too, and San Diego could do even better in front of their home crowd.
College Football Odds: San Diego State 35, San Jose State 9
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