The West Virginia Mountaineers have been one of the pleasant surprises of the college football season, starting 5-0 and moving up within the top-15 in the national polls. They are suddenly a legitimate College Football Playoff contender if they can keep this up the rest of the way, although it won’t be easy.
The Mountaineers are a small favorite when they host the TCU Horned Frogs in Week 8 of the regular season, but it will be a tough test. TCU is a talented team with the capability to pull the upset and put a dent in West Virginia’s dream season.
This contest in Week 8 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 22, 2016, at 3 p.m. ET at Milan Puskar Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
TCU +4.5
West Virginia -4.5
Odds Analysis
The bettors like the run West Virginia has been on thus far and believes it will continue. More than 76 percent of the early money is coming in on the Mountaineers to cover the spread.
TCU has not fared well against the spread this season, covering only one time in six tries. West Virginia is 2-3 against the spread, covering only once in four home games.
Matchup to Watch
TCU passing game vs. West Virginia defense - The Horned Frogs will aim to use their aerial attack to keep West Virginia on its heels. TCU is averaging 40.2 points per game based off of a passing game which has averaged 362.5 yards per game through the air.
That mark is sixth nationally, but it will be hard to match that number against a tough Mountaineers defense. West Virginia has only allowed 19.4 points per game this season, which is 25th in the country.
TCU quarterback Kenny Hill is the key. He has completed 162-of-256 passes for 1,242 yards with 12 touchdowns but also has eight interceptions. He must take care of the ball in order to give his team a chance at pulling off the upset.
His favorite target has been Taj Williams, who has caught 25 passes for 506 yards and four touchdowns. Rasul Douglas leads West Virginia with two interceptions, including one he returned for a touchdown.
If the Mountaineers get a big play like that in this one, it could change the complexion of the game.
Key stat
2. Wins by three points or less in the past three weeks for West Virginia. There is a significant buzz around the team after last week’s blowout win of Texas Tech, but it’s best to remember that the Mountaineers barely survived against BYU and Kansas State.
Close games are generally a coin flip, so West Virginia has been lucky to remain undefeated. Conversely, TCU has gone just 1-2 in games decided by seven points or less, including clawing out a 24-23 road win against Kansas a week ago.
That wasn’t a very inspiring showing, but TCU has pushed Arkansas and Oklahoma to the wire this season. The Horned Frogs team that shows up will help determine this outcome, because they have been very good at times and bad at others.
Free ATS Pick
West Virginia is one of three teams in the Big 12 still unbeaten in conference play and wants to keep pace with Baylor and Oklahoma. The Mountaineers didn’t figure to be in the hunt this season but has thus far played themselves into the conversation.
There are some big games down the road, but this one can’t be overlooked. TCU’s defense has been up and down as has Hill, but there is still a lot of talent there.
This could be an unpredictable outcome. Take TCU to pull off the upset, proving West Virginia isn’t quite ready to challenge the best teams in the conference.
College Football Odds: TCU 34, West Virginia 28
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