The Texas Longhorns and Kansas State Wildcats don’t have much chance of getting back into Big 12 contention, so instead their focus should be on securing the most prestigious bowl game possible.
This is a big game for both sides in order to get above .500, as each enters 3-3. Kansas State has the home field advantage and has played the tiniest bit better this season, which makes it the slight favorite. The Longhorns routed a poor Iowa State team last time out and is hoping to take that momentum into this one to pull the upset.
This contest in Week 8 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 22, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas +3.5
Kansas State -3.5
Odds Analysis
There is a split opinion on which team will cover this spread, as the ratio is only 52-48 in terms of the money headed toward Kansas State. The Longhorns are the more impressive program historically but the Wildcats have played some good opponents tough this year.
Kansas State is 3-3 against the spread in 2016 while Texas is 4-2. This one is marked accurately as each side has taken in plenty of money to cover.
Matchup to Watch
Texas offense vs. Kansas State defense -- Two strengths collide when these two units take the field together. The Longhorns are averaging 38.7 points per game and 500 yards of total offense.
They are led by quarterback Shane Buechele, who has thrown for 1,500 yards with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season. The team’s leading rusher is D’Onta Foreman. He has 731 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.
The Wildcats are only allowing 21 points per game, which is in the top-30 nationally. Kansas State has been particularly stingy against the run, giving up only 90.3 yards per game on the ground. If the Wildcats can hold Texas under 100, it will be a great sign for their chances.
Player to Watch
Jordan Willis - The Kansas State defensive end has been a constant presence in the backfield this season. He leads the team with six sacks and would love to increase that total against Texas.
Willis had two sacks apiece against West Virginia and Texas Tech, proving he can do it against top competition. He also forced a fumble in Kansas State’s season-opening loss to Stanford and recovered one against Missouri State.
Willis has 20 career sacks in his career, including 8.5 a season ago, which has put him on the list of the conference’s best pass-rushers. It’s imperative for the Kansas State pass rush to pressure Buechele in order to give the secondary some help.
Free ATS Pick
Kansas State is favored, but it can’t rely solely on its defense in this one. The Wildcats need quarterback Jesse Ertz to find some success against a Texas defense which 34 points and 278.5 passing yards per game.
Ertz is averaging only 167 passing yards per contest as Kansas State prefers to run the ball, but he will likely be counted on in big spots during a game which could be close throughout.
Texas lost three straight before getting back on track last time out against Iowa State and is now hoping to string some wins together. The program is still trying to find its footing to get back to its dominance of yesteryear, and while this wouldn’t be the sexiest win, Kansas State is a good opponent and it would certainly be a good one.
While the Longhorns should be able to hang around, Kansas State is underrated and should be able to come away with the win. The spread is tricky since a field-goal margin gives Texas the cover, but take the Wildcats to do enough to win by a touchdown, thus covering.
College Football Odds: Kansas State 31, Texas 24
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