This is a relatively new rivalry considering the South Alabama Jaguars football team is still in its infancy. The Battle of the Belt is split two games apiece since the Jaguars’ first head-to-head meeting against the Troy Trojans back in 2012. Troy took the first two games of this series, but South Alabama has won the last two. Can Troy reverse its fortunes and avoid a third straight upset at the hands of the Jaguars here in Week 8?
This contest in Week 8 of the regular season will go down Thursday, October 20, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Ladd-Peebles Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Troy -9
South Alabama +9
Odds Analysis
Despite South Alabama taking this matchup the last two seasons, the Jaguars opened as 8.5-point underdogs at home with the bettors backing Troy heavily, widening the gap now to 9-points.
The Trojans certainly have been the more consistent team through the first part of the season, but don’t get too confident. South Alabama has only covered the spread twice in six games, but both were straight up victories despite entering the games as strong dogs, topping Mississippi State on the road and San Diego State at home.
Key Stats
The Jaguars have had a spotty season, highlighted by a 42-24 win over San Diego state and low-lighted by barely squeezing out a win at home over Nicholls State along with key losses to Georgia Southern, ULL and Arkansas State.
One of the big underlying factors for South Alabama’s inconsistencies is the team’s untimely turnovers while their big win over the Aztecs was driven by a couple key fumble recoveries.
In total, through the season’s first six games, the Jaguars have a turnover margin of -1. Comparatively, Troy’s one of the best teams in college football in this category. The Trojans have recorded three fumble recoveries and 14 interceptions. That’s a staggering 17 turnovers for their opposition in six games. On the other side, Troy’s given the ball up nine times, giving the team a positive differential of eight turnovers.
Matchup to Watch
In terms of style of play, this is not a direct apples-to-apples type comparison. You have one team, Troy, who has a balanced offense between the pass and run and a defense that takes care of business against the opposing running game, but can be beat in the secondary.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars cannot run the ball consistently; averaging fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, but can move the ball rather effectively in the air. They can also defend the pass quite well, too. In fact, they’re two big upsets came in part due to the team’s ability to win the battle in the secondary and they’ll need to do the same again on Thursday to record yet another upset.
You can count on Troy winning the rushing battle, but the key matchup to watch is the one in the secondary. Can the Trojans adequately pressure Dallas Davis or Cole Garvin in the pocket? For South Alabama, can one of those two QBs step up and grab the reigns much like Garvin did in the showdown against San Diego State? On the other side, can the pass defense that is ranked No. 3 in the nation create enough pressure on Brandon Silvers to force him to make some key mistakes? Turnover ratios have traditionally favored Troy this season, but it’ll be up to South Alabama to even that up.
The Trojans have been good at winning the turnover battle, but Silvers has thrown five interceptions in the team’s last two games. For Troy, the goal will be build a solid lead early and then hand the ball off to Chunn to take care of the rest.
Free ATS Pick
South Alabama and Troy are huge rivals off the gridiron and growing ones on it after the Jaguars’ last two victories.
The Trojans still have an excellent shot at pulling out the win straight up, but with the spread now at nine, it’s worth taking the points and the home team to cover. Sure, Chunn has a great matchup and will racking up the yards on the ground, but Troy’s offensive upside is limited against South Alabama given their strength against the pass. It’s just important to be sure to stay close enough to force Troy into the air.
We’ve seen the Jaguars put up a couple really strong games already this season and while they’ve had some clunkers, you can expect South Alabama to be pumped to take on Troy at home. That should lead to better focus and better results.
On the other side, South Alabama’s quarterback controversy continues to be a concern, but you can throw the ball against Troy. With two viable options, Joey Jones can ride the hot hand and/or make a quick midgame adjustments should the need arise.
College Football Odds: Troy 26, South Alabama 21
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