The Wyoming Cowboys head into their Week 8 showdown in the Mountain West crossover matchup with the Nevada Wolf Pack off a bye week. The Cowboys have had plenty of time to game plan and are also riding high having won two in a row and three of their last four games. Nevada, by comparison, is struggling. They just feel to San Jose State last weeks, scoring only 10-points as the offense has dried up. Nevada’s scored 17 or fewer in three of their last four games, all losses.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 8 game is set for Saturday, October 22, 2016, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Clarence Mackay Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wyoming -4
Nevada +4
Over/Under 52.5
Odds Analysis
Nevada opened up as dogs at home and as the total has dropped, the spread has expanded by a half-point from its -3.5 open. The total’s movement is much larger as this isn’t expected to be a high scoring affair and bettors have acted accordingly. To try and encourage more action on the over, the total has dropped a point and a half down from its opening 54.
Neither offense is ranked highly. Wyoming’s offense is the better of the two ranking No. 78 in total yards per game compared to the No. 109 ranking of the Wolf Pack. With the total down as low as it is now, however, a gamble on the over could pay off considering Wyoming itself has scored at least 35-points in back-to-back games and four of six this season.
Matchup to Watch
Wyoming’s offensive inconsistencies lie in the passing attack. Josh Allen has 10 touchdowns this season against six interceptions. Limiting turnovers will be important to secure the win and cover the spread. They did that against Air Force, forcing four turnovers and allowing only one in the win.
The Cowboys figure to once again focus their energy running the ball. They’ll come out hard early to try and secure a quick lead to allow Brian Hill to do his thing on the ground. It’s crucial that Nevada does what it can to force the Cowboys into the air, but their defense isn’t built for that. They defend the pass very well, but give the opposition plenty of holes up front with a weak defensive front. Unless the score indicates otherwise, there’s just no incentive to go to the air with any regularity.
The Wolf Pack has a good secondary and could shutdown Wyoming’s offense if Nevada can get the early lead and force Allen to throw the ball down the field. That’s just not likely to happen with Nevada unable to score this season. As a result, it’ll be up to the Nevada rush defense to outperform expectations as they are one of the worst in the nation, allowing 250.7 rushing yards per game.
Hill can easily exploit that weakness while the Cowboys have a few other backs with success over smaller sample sizes to help keep Hill’s legs fresh and provide a change of pace look to keep the Nevada defensive line off balance.
Last Meeting
The Cowboys beat the Wolf Pack at home last season, 28-21, despite being six-point underdogs. While Wyoming had Cameron Coffman produce three touchdowns to no interceptions under center last year, the program also got plenty of work from Brian Hill on the ground to set up those passes.
Hill is back as good as ever for the Cowboys. He delivered 188 yards on 33 carries against Nevada last year and this season already has 721 yards and eight touchdowns on 145 carries.
On the other side, the Wolf Pack return a number of players including Tyler Stewart and James Butler, but with a big second quarter, the Cowboys forced Nevada to abandon the run early and while Stewart’s overall numbers were fine, Wyoming controlled the clock and forced enough incompletions to limit the offense’s overall effectiveness.
Free ATS Pick
The Wolf Pack shouldn’t be as bad as they’ve been, but they still don’t have the quality and depth to shut down the Cowboy’s attack on defense. While James Butler is a good rusher, he’s not getting into the end zone enough. Similarly, Tyler Stewart’s numbers don’t look bad in the passing game, but the total yardage—and total points per game—of this team is way down from where it needs to be.
Count on the Cowboys easily covering this small road spread, winning its third straight game. Simply, Wyoming is playing better football right now and there’s nothing we’ve seen from Nevada over the last few weeks to expect that to change on Saturday.
College Football Odds: Wyoming 30, Nevada 23
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