The Air Force Falcons will try and regain their early season magic in their Week 9 Friday night showcase against the Fresno State Bulldogs. The Falcons started the season strong, with a big win over Navy and a 4-0 record, but the team’s gone cold, dropping three in a row. Fresno State is the perfect opponent to help Air Force stop the bleeding, the Bulldogs have dropped six in a row.
Watch this regular season Week 9 matchup live on Friday, October 28, 2016, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Bulldog Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Air Force -12
Fresno State -12
Odds Analysis
For a team that’s been struggling 12-points is a lot to give on the road against any team, but Fresno State has been that bad.
The Bulldogs cannot stop the run and are squaring off against one of the nation’s best rushing offenses. More on that match up later. In the meantime, Air Force has failed to cover the spread in three straight games, and has a 3-4 ATS mark overall this season.
Despite a Fresno State’s only straight up victory coming against a non-FBS opponent in Sacramento State, the Bulldogs have been able to cover the spread consistently. The team’s been very, very bad and in order for the odds-makers to drive any action on the Bulldogs, they’ve got to set the bar very low to get bettors to bite. For those willing to take the plunge on a team that’s generally lost on both sides of the ball, its paid off recently with the Bulldogs covering the spread in three straight games and four of their last five contests.
Matchup to Watch
There’s an obvious mismatch on the ground in this game and that’s what should drive the Falcons to a rather commanding victory.
The Air Force has no passing game. None. Nate Romine completed just one out of 10 passes against Hawaii last week with 20 yards and an interception. That’s just ridiculous. This team will run. The defense can stack the line, but the rushing attack is that good, and that diverse, that the Falcons can still rack up the yards. They rushed for 389 in a disappointing loss to Hawaii.
As noted above, Air Force’s rushing attack is one of the best in the nation, ranked No. 5 through the season’s first eight weeks.
The team is averaging 291.4 yards per game on the ground and feature a talented, stacked and diverse backfield that at least gives the defense a number of different looks and styles to keep them on their toes even if they know a running play is coming almost all of the time.
The team has six different rushers with at least 164 yards and has scored 17 times on the ground with six different runners carrying the ball over the end zone. Interestingly, the Falcons have thrown for 10 touchdowns, too, as they’re able to shake up the defense in the red zone.
On the other side of the field, the Bulldogs cannot stop the run. You can run it up the middle and tell them you are doing it and they cannot stop you. This is a team that’s a top-10 defense against the pass, but ranked No. 124 against the run, allowing 267 rushing yards per game. Romine will continue to provide nothing to the Falcon offense, but the Air Force should be able to score with ease regardless. But will the running game be enough. It wasn’t in the last three games. The Air Force was favored in all three of those games, too.
Coaching Angle
It was just a matter of time for Tim DeRuyter who is now out after a 1-7 start to the season. DeRuyter found success with this Fresno State program in his first few seasons, but a 3-9 season followed by an even worse start to 2016 is too much. Even the best coach cannot expect to keep his job after that.
With DeRuyter out, Eric Kiesau steps in as the interim head coach after serving as the offensive coordinator under DeRuyter.
Often when a coach is let go you see the team change. Some teams step up with the change, taking it as a challenge and get a bit of a spark—albeit a temporary one. Other teams just throw in the towel. It’s hard to tell which reaction to expect from Fresno State, but one thing for sure is this: you cannot expect this team to all of a sudden improve on the ground. That was the problem under DeRuyter and that will continue to be the problem under Kiesau.
We’ve already examined how this team cannot stop the run, but on the other side of the ball, they can’t get anything going on the ground on offense and that’s been with Kiesau as the offensive coordinator.
The team’s latest game against Utah State is an interesting case study. They continued to push the ground game and continued to put the offense in tough positions. As a whole the team rushed for fewer than three yards a carry.
Free ATS Pick
Week 8 was a terrible week for both teams. The Air Force dropped a game to Hawaii despite being favored by more than BookMaker has them favored this time around. Fresno State, meanwhile, lost their seventh of the year, the final straw for their head coach since 2012.
That Utah State loss for Fresno did provide some positives that could come into play on Friday. Most notable, Fresno State didn’t allow a turnover. For a team that cannot effectively run the ball and thus cannot consistently move the ball down the field, that’s huge. It at least gives the defense a fighting chance.
Overall, look for the coaching change to provide a bit of a spark and for the Bulldogs to at least play a cleaner game than we’re used to seeing from them this year, but I still see the Falcons’ getting the win, but not necessarily ATS. This could be a tight game, much in the mold of the one Air Force played in last week against Hawaii, just with the ending better for Air Force fans, but not necessarily for Air Force bettors.
College Football Odds: Air Force 30, Fresno State 21
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