The Akron Zips journey to western New York State to take on the Buffalo Bulls in Week 9 for the 16th time in the history of these programs. Akron has fared particularly well in this matchup. The Zips took their tenth game in head-to-head action over Bulls last year at home, but Buffalo captured the win the last time these two teams faced off in New York. They’ll get a chance to get the win at home, but the trends favor an Akron team that’s won three of their last four games opposed to a Buffalo team on a four game slide.
This contest in Week 9 of the regular season will go down Thursday, October 27, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at UB Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Akron -15
Buffalo +15
Odds Analysis
After opening at 14.5-points, the spread has since jumped to 15-points in favor of the road team in Thursday night’s showdown. The Zips did beat the Bulls by 21-points, doubling up the score on them last season. Still, Buffalo is the underdog by more than two touchdowns at home despite a 55-24 victory the last time these teams met at home.
Buffalo is just 1-3 SU at home this season and 2-2 ATS. Overall, the Bulls are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. They’re in the midst of a very poor season while the Zips are 5-3 SU and 3-1 SU on the road. Akron hasn’t been particularly great ATS either, going just 3-5 overall, but the team is even with Buffalo’s home ATS mark while on the road at 2-2.
Key Stat
Typically when reviewing odds, it’s important to break down the teams in terms of red zone production, third down conversions and passing versus rushing matchups against the opposition. In this games, it’s much, much simpler.
The Bulls are just flat out bad on offense. They’re last in the FBS in scoring with a measly 14.9 points per game and have been equally bad in the air as they have on the road. To make matters worse, Buffalo doesn’t have the defense to keep things close, allowing more than double the amount of points per game as the team scores.
Focusing on the offense, however, Buffalo is coming off a 44-7 loss to Northern Illinois. It was the second time in four games the Bulls failed to score more than seven points.
In terms of total yards, the Bulls were dominated, gaining 173 fewer yards than the Huskies. Overall, they’re averaging just 323.6 yards per game, ranking them No. 121 in the nation while they’re surrendering 444.6 yards per game. That’s not a recipe for success and the results speak for themselves, particularly over the last four games.
Aside from a surprise win over Army, this team has been consistently bad and hasn’t been able to mount any sort of sustained offense, leaving the defense taxed. On the flip side, the Zips aren’t the most prolific offense themselves, but Akron is converting 90-percent of their red zone touches into points and does at least have a strong passing offense to lean on to cover for a less-than-stellar running game.
Thomas Woodson has now scored double-digit passing touchdowns in three straight games, totaling nine TDs in that span.
Look-Ahead Situation
Given just how bad this Bulls team has been and the big bounce-back win for Akron in Week 8, there is a potential for the Zips to overlook Buffalo, but the Week 7 debacle against Western Michigan—albeit a completely different, and much better team—should still keep Akron on their toes as they will be looking to continue showing dominance.
In the Week 7 loss, the Zips got nothing going on offense, allowing a pair of touchdowns and taxing an already lackluster defense. That defense won’t be exploited on Thursday. The Bulls don’t have the weapons to beat any defense, even bad ones.
In general, this offense should handle the poor Bulls’ defense which would allow everything else to fall into place. The below-average running game played well last week against the Cardinals, scoring a pair of touchdowns with Van Edwards Jr. touching the ball only 16 times, but gaining 112 yards. If the Akron running game can contribute alongside the strong passing attack, this game could get lopsided really quickly.
Free ATS Pick
The Zips are playing good football right now and while the defense isn’t really that great nor is the running game, Akron does at least have a strong passing attack led by Woodson and have plenty of receiving options at his disposal. That’s at least one strong facet of the game, something that the Bulls cannot match.
Buffalo is abysmal on both sides of the ball and have seen their struggles extend to most of the season, save for one game against Army. That was now more than a month ago.
Look for Akron to continue to play well—or at least well enough—to get a sizeable victory, covering the spread. The Bulls are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 1-5 ATS in their last six in conference. This doesn’t seem to be a favorable matchup to expect this to be an exception. The fact the Bulls are at home is probably keeping the spread down below where it ultimately should be as Buffalo hasn’t shown the ability to pick up its game at UB Stadium.
College Football Odds: Akron 42, Buffalo 20
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