Two of the best teams in the Sun Belt square off on Thursday night when the Appalachian State Mountaineers take on the Georgia Southern Eagles. While Appalachian State is undefeated in conference, Georgia Southern has just one loss, on a crazy comeback by Arkansas State, but still largely controls its own destiny. Whoever wins this College Football Week 9 matchup will come one step closer to winning the conference, while the loser will have some ground to make up.
Watch this Week 9 matchup live on Thursday, October 27, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Allen E. Paulson Stadium. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Georgia Southern +4.5
Appalachian State -4.5
Odds Analysis
Georgia Southern came into the year with very high expectations but the Eagles have had trouble living up to those projections this season. Georgia Southern is the worst ATS team in the Sun Belt this season with a 1-6 record against the number with the only win being a 1.5-point cover. The Eagles haven’t covered a game in a month and a half at this point, a far cry from the 9-4 ATS mark they put up last season.
The Mountaineers have won four in a row but have had some trouble covering large spreads. Appalachian State failed to cover as a 19 and a 21-point favorite during the month of October, but controlled each game. Last week, Idaho scored a meaningless touchdown with two seconds left that not only gave Appalachian State an ATS loss, but also prevented it from playing its third straight under game.
Last Year’s Meeting
These were two of the top teams in the conference when they met up last season, but Appalachian State was able to shut down Georgia Southern’s running game and cruised to a win. The Mountaineers held the Eagles to just 4.9 yards per play and forced two turnovers, stifling an offense that was one of the tops in the Sun Belt in 2015.
Taylor Lamb shined in last year’s meeting completing 70 percent of his passes for over 10 yards an attempt and two touchdowns. It was part of a fantastic sophomore campaign from Lamb, but he has struggled to replicate his success this season.
Coaching Angle
Tyson Summers took over as Georgia Southern’s head coach after Willie Fritz left to take the head job at Tulane and the offense has suffered since the move. Last season, the Eagles were able to control the game with one of the best rushing attacks in the country, averaging 6.48 yards a carry. This season though, the Eagles are rushing for almost two yards less per carry and are still adjusting to Summers’ offense.
The Eagles have also been one of the most penalized teams in the nation in their first year under Summers. Georgia Southern is averaging 8.4 penalties per game this season, a number that is double how often the Eagles were penalized in 2015 and that has killed their chances against some of their competition.
Free ATS Pick
The Eagles might be just 4-3 this season, but a lot of that has had to do with the schedule. Georgia Southern hasn’t played a home game since September 17 and long road trips have taken their toll on this team.
This is one of those scenarios where the line looks wrong until you take a long look. Although Appalachian State looks like a much better team than Georgia Southern, the Eagles had both the long road trip and tough road losses to Western Michigan, Georgia Tech, and Arkansas State in that timeframe and aren’t as bad as they’ve looked. Both defenses will play well and it will be a field goal that decides it, so take the home team and the points.
College Football Odds: Eagles 20, Mountaineers 17
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