The Auburn Tigers have been on a roll of late, and a dominant win over No. 17 Arkansas last week showed what kind of capability they have when everything is going well. They will look to keep it up in a tough SEC road matchup against the Ole Miss Rebels in Week 9 of the regular season.
Auburn has lost once in conference play but hopes to keep it there to set up a titanic matchup against No. 1 Alabama to end the season. It won’t be easy to do so, but the Tigers are playing well and are slight favorites in this showdown with Ole Miss.
Watch this regular season Week 9 matchup live on Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Auburn -4
Ole Miss +4
Over/Under 63
Odds Analysis
Auburn’s excellence of late hasn’t been lost on the bettors, as 85.4 percent of the action so far has gone to them to cover this one despite being on the road.
The scoring total looks accurate, with 57 percent of the early money going on the “over.” Both these teams can really score points, but the Auburn defense has been stingy, which may keep the total down.
Auburn has been paying off well to those backing it all season. The Tigers are 5-2 straight up and 6-1 against the spread, including three covers in four tries as the favorite.
Ole Miss is 3-4 overall but has been competitive against some of the nation’s best teams, so the record is misleading. The Rebels are 2-5 against the spread in 2016.
Key stat
302.9. That’s the number of rushing yards per game Auburn has averaged per game this season, one of the best marks of any team in the country.
The group has been led by Kamryn Pettway. He has carried the ball 118 times for 697 yards and six touchdowns, but plenty of others have helped contribute.
Ole Miss is giving up 450 yards of total offense per game, and while the run defense hasn’t been too bad, if the defense starts giving up yards on the ground, it will open everything up and make it tough to stop Auburn.
Conversely, slowing down the ground attack will give Ole Miss a legitimate chance at winning this game.
Player to Watch
Chad Kelly - Ole Miss’ signal-caller is one of the top college quarterbacks in the country, but will face a big challenge in this Auburn defense this week. Kelly has thrown for 2,058 yards with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
He has a completion rate of 62 percent and could be a future NFL quarterback. Kelly nearly led an upset of Alabama earlier this year, so he has shown the ability to have success against even the best defenses in college football.
Kelly has struggled in consecutive losses to Arkansas and LSU, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns, and can’t allow that to happen again.
Auburn is holding opponents to only 198.3 passing yards per game, so it will try to limit Kelly. If that happens, Ole Miss is going to have a tough time pulling the upset.
Free ATS Pick
Both of these teams have been impressive at times, but Auburn has been the more well-rounded team throughout the season.
The Tigers score at a nice rate and also have a good defense. It came together perfectly in a 56-3 thrashing of then-No. 17 Arkansas last week and will aim to show out again.
Ole Miss lost a lot of talent to the draft, but despite that played well early on. The Rebels have been on the wrong end of a few heartbreakers, and now need a win to climb back to .500. While Ole Miss is no joke, Auburn is rolling right now and should be able to both win and cover this spread.
College Football Odds: Auburn 38, Ole Miss 30
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