It will be interesting to see how this one shakes out, as the Longhorns will aim to pull off the upset and get back to .500 on the season. If Baylor wins, it can remain in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth and the Big 12 conference title.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 9 game is set for Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baylor -2.5
Texas +2.5
Over/Under 69
Odds Analysis
Baylor looks like a lower favorite than expected at first glance, and the bettors agrees. Early in the week, more than 82 percent of the money is going on the Bears to cover. It’s especially incentivized since the spread has dropped to 2.5, meaning a win by a field goal or more results in a cover.
The scoring total looks accurate as half the money is going on the “over” and half on the “under” in a game which should be high-scoring..
Baylor has been a favorite in every game this season and has covered in three of those six games. Texas is 4-2-1 against the spread this season and has covered in all three of its home games this year.
Player to Watch
Shock Linwood - The Baylor running back has been dynamic this season. He has carried the ball 77 times for 500 yards and a pair of touchdowns, averaging 6.5 yards per carry.
Linwood has rushed for more than 1,250 yards each of the past two seasons and could once again surpass that total this season. He hasn’t been needed for a bunch of carries in some of the blowouts, but came up huge two weeks ago in a nail-biter against Iowa State.
Linwood had 25 carries for 237 yards and a touchdown in a 45-42 win to keep them team undefeated. Baylor averages an amazing 282.8 yards per game on the ground and has a lot of different players which can tote the rock, but it is Linwood who leads the pack.
Key stat
4. Losses for Texas in the past five games. The Longhorns started nicely with a pair of wins, including one over then-nationally ranked Notre Dame, but it has been tough sledding lately.
The Longhorns have lost three road games during the stretch, falling to Cal, Oklahoma State and Kansas State away from home. Texas has been much better in its friendly confines, with a competitive loss to nationally ranked Oklahoma the only blemish.
Coach Charlie Strong is already feeling the heat in Austin, and an upset win over Baylor would go a long way in getting the pressure off and making a march toward a bowl game.
Free ATS Pick
This spread seems curiously small. Baylor might not be one of the best undefeated teams remaining, but still, it hasn’t lost. The Bears rolled to an easy win over Kansas last time out and are in contention in the Big 12.
Texas has had its struggles. While the offense has shined in spurts, there hasn’t been as much consistency as expected. The Longhorns may be able to compete, but it seems foolish to go against the Bears.
Baylor’s offense should do plenty to help secure this one, even on the road. Don’t over-think this one. Take the undefeated team over the sub-.500 one both on the moneyline and to cover the spread.
College Football Odds: Baylor 41, Texas 34
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