A pair of strong offenses and undefeated conference records collide in the best Mountain West Conference game of the season with the Wyoming Cowboys hosting the Boise State Broncos in Week 9. This will be a big test for the Cowboys, going against a ranked opponent, while Boise State needs a strong win after barely surviving against BYU last week.
This matchup in Week 9 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Jonas Field at War Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Boise State -13.5
Wyoming +13.5
Odds Analysis
The odds makers released the odds with the Broncos two touchdown favorites at Wyoming and the spread has stayed relatively stagnant, adjusting downward by just a half of a point. That’s still quite a lot to give for a road team playing a very good team with plenty of offensive weapons.
Even though the Broncos are certain to score early and often, Wyoming’s got the players around Josh Allen—namely Brian Hill—to keep this game closer than the published spread would suggest.
A great team straight up and consistently one of the best mid majors year in and year out, the Broncos aren’t as good ATS. They’re constantly overestimated by bettors. They’re just 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Though, the wider view may skew things back in their advantage. The Cowboys are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 home games while the Broncos are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 road games.
Last Meeting
Wyoming has gotten better over the last few years. The last time these teams met was a year ago and the Broncos were favored going in by 33.5-points.
Granted that game was at home while Boise State heads to Laramie for Saturday’s showdown, but that’s still a hefty spread. Wyoming did cover the spread in what was ultimately still a lopsided game with the Broncos winning 34-14.
Many key offensive players are back for Boise State. Last year, Brett Rypien went 22-for-28 in a very efficient game, throwing three touchdowns. Jeremy McNichols, meanwhile, contributed on the ground, rushing for 166 yards and a score. Both are back and better than ever.
Rypien has already topped 2,000 yards passing with 2,064 yards, completing 62.6-percent of his passes and throwing 15 touchdowns to just five interceptions. McNichols has 16 combined touchdowns with 915 rushing yards and 372 receiving.
In that last meeting, Boise State hand the advantage in nearly every key statistical category, winning the battle on time of possession, third down efficiency, total yards and first downs.
The lopsided victory could make Boise State a bit complacent this year. This is not the same Wyoming team. Brian Hill is still on the team, but he’s turned into a beast after gaining just 76 yards last year against the Broncos.
Likely the best running back few people have heard of, Hill ran for 289 yards and three scores against Nevada in Week 8. He’s got 1,010 yards on the ground this season.
Josh Allen is a more efficient quarterback for this system, too. He’s adept at putting Hill in a position to success while providing enough in the air to keep the opposing defense honest.
Matchup to Watch
These teams are balanced and that should make for a good game, but how this game plays out may ultimately fall to the defenses for these two high scoring teams.
Boise State’s defense actually grades out pretty well. The team has allowed just 20.4 points per game and offers a nice balance against the run and the pass, not getting over exposed in either case.
The rush defense will be key with Hill carrying the ball and coming off such a great game. Wyoming’s passing game is a compliment to Hill so as Hill goes so goes the Cowboys. That’s why Boise State’s best defense may be early success on offense.
The Broncos will try to force the Cowboys into the air more often and a big lead does just that, but in order to mount that lead, the Broncos will need to avoid the turnovers that kept BYU in the game last week until the bitter end.
Wyoming’s pass defense is not good. They’re near the bottom in yards allowed, but the Cowboys have nabbed 11 interceptions. The Broncos have a big turnover problem, too. They’ve lost 11 while only forcing three, that’s a bad margin. With five of those turnovers last week, that’s a bad trend, too.
Free ATS Pick
Boise State is good; really good, but giving nearly two touchdowns to Wyoming with the Cowboys at home is just too much. Take the underdog to cover the spread at home as this game figures to be a fine, high scoring affair. With that in mind, depending on where the total lands on the over/under, the over could be a nice moneymaker, too.
The Broncos are undefeated, but they’ve been winning nail bitters. They barely beat the Cougars last week and have won by less than a touchdown against Washington State and Colorado State this year. This is not a team without issue.
For example, in the BYU game, the Broncos needed a blocked field goal to win as a result of five turnovers. Boise State out gained the Cougars by a mile, but a couple interceptions and three fumbles is not the way to win and is not a good sign if you’re looking to give two touchdowns to back a road team.
We’ve seen Boise State narrowly squeaking by and we’ve seen Wyoming begin to inch its way into the conversation atop the conference. These teams are much closer than the spread would indicate as the Cowboys are still being undervalued nationally.
College Football Odds: Boise State 41, Wyoming 35
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