USC shook off three losses in its first four games to jump back into the Pac-12 South race and can make more hay with a victory in this one. Both teams have 4-3 overall records and two losses in the conference, but USC is the team to beat in this one.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 9 game is set for Thursday, October 27, 2016, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
California +14.5
USC -14.5
Over/Under 75.5
Odds Analysis
Bettors like this line for Cal, since keeping the margin within two touchdowns would result in a cover. The Golden Bears have not lost by more than 10 points this season and keeping that streak alive would keep the 72 percent of bettors choosing them feeling happy.
The scoring total is high because Cal throws the ball over the field and has a tendency to play in shootouts.
California is 3-3-1 against the spread this season, as is USC. The Trojans are 3-0-1 as a favorite this year.
Player to Watch
David Webb - If Cal can stick close in this game, it will be on the strength of its standout quarterback. Webb has thrown for 2,581 yards already this season with 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
He has thrown at least 35 passes in every game this season, and attempted an incredible 72 against San Diego State. Since the Bears are so reliant on the passing game, it can work for and against them.
Cal has the ability to rally against teams that pull ahead but are also susceptible to giving up comebacks since the running game struggles to chew up clock.
USC has only allowed 206.3 yards per game through the air so this will be an intriguing matchup.
Key stat
1. That’s the number of games back USC sits in the Pac-12 South race. While the Trojans have an overall record that pales in comparison to Utah and Colorado, they are within striking distance of both.
The Trojans have a tough road game coming up against Washington, so they need to win a game like this in which they are favored in order to keep pace.
USC is rooting for Utah to falter down the stretch since the Utes beat the Trojans earlier this season.
Free ATS Pick
USC lost to ranked teams Alabama, Stanford and Utah early on but never packed it in on the season. The Trojans have been reborn of late, knocking off Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona in consecutive weeks.
USC will look to run the ball, as California has been a sieve against the run, giving up 270.7 yards rushing per game on the season. That could result in a big game for Justin Davis. The Southern California running back has 74 carries for 476 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
California’ defense must be better in order to stick around in this one, but the task may be too tall. USC is playing well and should be able to pull away in the second half. Webb has to throw so many passes that it’s almost inevitable that he gets picked off in this one.
USC should roll to the win, covering a hefty spread in the process. While the over/under looks to be in a good spot, the thinking here is that the Trojans defense comes up with a big stop lately and then it bleeds out the clock.
The “under” is the call, but only narrowly, in this matchup.
College Football Odds: USC 45, California 28
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