Having won three of their last four games, the Central Florida Knights are confident as they head to Texas to take on the Houston Cougars in this Week 9 AAC battle. Houston completely destroyed UCF in the midst of their winless season last year and enter this game as a ranked team, but the Cougars also enter play having dropped two of their last three games—though both those losses did come on the road.
This matchup in Week 9 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at TDECU Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Central Florida +9
Houston -9
Over/Under 56
Odds Analysis
A conference powerhouse the last few years, it’s not surprising that Houston opened as sizeable favorites at home, but UCF has played pretty good football at times this year. With an initial spread of 12-points, the Knights were a trendy pick early to cover, but the spread has since dropped by a field goal. The total has also dropped from 59.5 to 56.
Home is where the heart is, but for Houston it’s also where the wins are. They’ve hit a bit of a speed bump in the middle of their season, but that’s so far only impacted them on the road in terms of actual wins and losses. That said, they’ve now failed to cover the spread in three straight games with one of those coming in Houston.
The Knights, meanwhile, continue to outperform expectations as they’ve bounced back from their dismal 2015 campaign. They’ve not only won three of four, they’ve covered the spread in four of their last five.
Matchup to Watch
McKenzie Milton was a beast in the Knight’s big win at UConn in Week 8. The freshman continues to get better and better. In the win, he completed 64.4-percent of his passes for 317 yards. He also tossed three touchdowns, all on beautiful throws to different receivers, without allowing a pick.
Now that the youngster is healthy, we’re seeing just how good he can be. And thus, the passing attack is better than the No. 86 ranking they have this season.
A key to Houston getting back on track with a win, particularly a win that covers the spread, is their ability to mitigate Milton’s impact.
Over the course of the season, Houston’s defense has been strong. They’re giving up just 21.4 points per game and rank No. 13 in yards allowed. The pass defense is probably the weakest area statistically, but even there the Cougars are above average.
Focusing more on the last three games, however, Houston’s defense has been suddenly extremely mediocre.
In Week 8, the Cougars gave up 38-points to Southern Methodist after allowing 46 to Navy and 31 to Tulsa.
The Mustangs’ Ben Hicks had, arguably, his best game of the season against Houston, tossing a season high three touchdowns while totaling 228 yards. Before that, Tulsa’s Dane Evans threw for 365 yards.
Key Stat
Houston converted just 25-percent of their third-down chances last week against SMU. UCF is not an easy team to convert on. They’re amongst the best defensively in that category, ranked No. 8 in college football, allowing the opposition to convert on 28.7-percent of their third down chances.
This may be the single biggest stat to keep an eye on through the game’s first few drives. Houston is usually excellent at extending drives. They’re No. 13 overall in third down conversion percentage, converting 48.9-percent of their chances even after their poor effort a week ago.
Aside from broken plays on defense, this is the one of the biggest shifts between the team we saw in the first part of the season and the one that was just pummeled by a statistically weaker SMU squad.
Free ATS Pick
Houston just hasn’t been the same team since they took on Navy. The defense, in particular, looks lost at times with broken coverage and failed plays a common sight.
Last week, the Cougars lost to SMU by 22 points despite entering the game as the 23.5-point favorites. They needed a goal line stop in the final minutes to topple Tulsa a week prior, at home, despite the Golden Hurricanes’ being three touchdown underdogs.
The Cougars team is better than this. We saw them beat Oklahoma in Week 1 and steal the college football spot light. We’ve seen them completely dominate the opposition for five weeks, but something is different. Can Houston break out of this funk and get back to form? Sure. Will they this week? That’s hard to say and the trends don’t back it up.
I expect Houston to score and the Cougars could still come away with the win. Even with the spread dropping, bank on the Knights to cover. We saw what Milton is capable of last week and with the Houston defense in shambles, UCF should at the very least be able to match Houston score for score and keep this game close.
For those looking to play on the total, take the over particularly now that it has dropped a few points.
College Football Odds: Houston 33, Central Florida 30
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