The Georgia State Panthers are winless on the road and journey to Mobile to take on the South Alabama Jaguars. Having won two of their last three games, Georgia State has looked better of late, but heading into Week 9, the Panthers are still winless on the road. South Alabama hasn’t been that great at home, but should be much more comfortable facing the Panthers at Ladd-Pebbles Stadium than in the Georgia Dome where South Alabama fell to Georgia State by a pair of touchdowns last season.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 9 game is set for Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 5 p.m. ET at Ladd-Pebbles Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Georgia State +3
South Alabama -3
Odds Analysis
The odds opened with South Alabama as the favorites by 2.5-points, but the spread quickly jumped to a full field goal on Sunday night.
Georgia State hasn’t been a bad team to back this season from a betting perspective. The team’s been abysmal straight up, but has covered the spread now in five straight games. The under has been a rather reliable bet as well, with the total coming in under in four of those five games.
The Jaguars haven’t been as consistent. South Alabama has a better SU record. The team’s covered the spread in two of their last three games, too, but just three of seven games this season. An important note, however, is that those last two ATS victories came at home.
Matchup to Watch
These are both passing teams. They both thrive on making something happen in the air, both on offense and defense so this game should be pinning strength against strength. In general, we’re going to sees a game between two very similar teams. That could keep this one close.
Georgia State ranks in the middle of the pack offensively throwing the ball and No. 126 carrying it and that’s even with Kyler Neal, the team’s rushing leader, healthy much of the season. He missed all of last game and most of the game prior. If he’s out again on Saturday, the lopsided offense gets even more lopsided.
Under center, Connor Manning put up back-to-back 340+ yard games with back-to-back multi-touchdown efforts. The interception is still a problem. For a team so pass heavy, interceptions are bound to happen, but over the last three games, Manning has allowed six interceptions to five touchdowns. Aaron Winchester got the start at QB in Week 8, but he too was picked twice. Interestingly, he threw for only 119 yards, completing half of his 16 attempts.
The ground game was okay in the 31-6 win and out gained the Skyhawks. In general, with the air attack stifled, the offense managed just 285 total yards. The defense, nabbed four turnovers—including three interceptions, highlighting the team’s defensive strength against the pass—to set up the victory. Over the course of the year, the passing defense has allowed just 185.4 passing yards per game to rank 20th in the nation.
On the other side of the gridiron, the Jaguars are a better offense. They’re ranked No. 46 in the air, but again are one of the worst on the ground. They’re also ranked a few spots higher in the pass defense, allowing 6.5 fewer passing yards per game.
The pass defense does have a few injuries and the Jaguars’ rushing attack seems to have found itself a bit last week, but this still comes down to the passing game which, much like Georgia State, racks up the yards more out of necessity and opportunity than anything else.
Again, like Georgia State, turnovers are a big deal. Dallas Davis has five interceptions in his last three games, but none in the loss against Troy in Week 8.
Key Stat
With the turnovers the key to this game, it’s important to examine where these two teams stand on the matter over the course of the year.
Of course, we know both quarterbacks have a bad habit of allowing interceptions, but does one defense do a better job of countering that?
South Alabama has the better turnover margin. The Jaguars have been able to counter all of their offensive turnovers—including seven interceptions in seven games—with a forced turnover on defense.
The Panthers, meanwhile, are three in the red in turnover margin for the season in six games. Georgia State has lost the ball 12 times already, that’s an average of twice a game, while forcing nine turnovers themselves. If these stats hold up, the Panthers could be in trouble.
Free ATS Pick
South Alabama is banged up and lost a few starters in their latest game, a loss to Troy. Still, they’re favored against the Panthers. It’s the first time all season long that the Jaguars have been favored in a game.
It is South Alabama’s homecoming game and the Jaguars scheduled Georgia State thinking it was a winnable game. The homecoming crowd could provide that little bit of extra momentum the Jaguars need to get the “W”.
These two teams are very similar statistically and both have a number of flaws, but their strengths and weaknesses mirror each other so there’s no clear advantage. With that, the home team should eek out the victory. South Alabama is a bit better in its turnover ratio and a key turnover on Saturday could very easily be the difference maker.
This game should be close, but take South Alabama to cover at home, but watch to be sure the spread doesn’t jump too much from here.
College Football Odds: South Alabama 27, Georgia State 23
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