Louisville has been one of the most dominant teams in the country this season and will aim to roll through another opponent. The team’s dynamic offense should lead the way as the Cardinals are a gigantic favorite even while playing on the road.
Watch this regular season Week 9 matchup live on Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Louisville -31.5
Virginia +31.5
Over/Under 69
Odds Analysis
Louisville has to score early and often to approach this spread, but the betting public still believes. The Cardinals are getting 63 percent of the early action to cover.
The scoring total may not be quite high enough as 75 percent of the action has preferred the “over” as the Cardinals can really put up points in a hurry.
Louisville is 6-1 straight up and has covered in five of those games. The Cardinals have been favored in the majority of their games and are 4-1 as the favorite.
Virginia is 2-5 straight up and 4-3 against the spread in 2016. The Cavaliers have been the underdog in six games but have done a nice job of surpassing the oddsmakers’ expectations, covering in four of those games.
Player to Watch
Lamar Jackson - The Louisville quarterback is a dual threat with a combined 24 touchdowns so far this season. Jackson has completed 134 of 220 passes for 2,161 yards with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions. He also has 130 carries for 908 yards with 16 touchdowns on the ground.
Jackson is the star of this offense and a Heisman Trophy contender this season as a sophomore. He is an incredibly challenging players for defenses to stop and is a huge reason why Louisville is such a large favorite in this matchup.
He threw for 355 yards and three touchdowns last week in the 54-13 win over NC State. He also had a rushing touchdown and can do both with easy depending how a defense decides to play.
Key stat
268.3. The Cavaliers’ number of passing yards per game, and surpassing that could be critical in this one. Virginia won’t be able to keep up, but the betting public mostly just cares about the spread.
If Virginia is able to move the ball through the air, it could help result in a cover. Cavaliers quarterback Kurt Benkert has thrown for 1,859 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the season.
Louisville has been stingy against the pass this season so Benkert must be able to fit passes into tight windows.
Free ATS Pick
Virginia has a big cushion to work with to cover the spread and gets this game at home. However, Louisville has a tendency to overwhelm an opponent.
The Cardinals defeated North Carolina State 54-13 last time out and if they played like that again, it will be good night for Virginia. However, this one is an easy win for the Cardinals and they might not be as motivated since it is such a gimme.
Virginia has a shot to cover, but in the end there is just too much talent on the other side. Jackson will be unstoppable in this one and Louisville should be able to get up early and will continue to pile up the points.
The “under” is also the right call as the Cardinals will zoom ahead but there won’t be a lot of scoring late in the game when the result is no longer in doubt.
College Football Odds: Louisville 48, Virginia 10
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