The Indiana Hoosiers lost their third straight game and fourth game in five games in Week 8 while the Maryland Terrapins snapped a two game skid of their own with a big road win over Michigan State. They’ll need another win away from home to help strengthen their resume for a potential bowl bid. These two Big Ten programs will meet in Week 9.
Watch this regular season Week 9 matchup live on Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Maryland +5
Indiana -5
Over/Under
Odds Analysis
Indiana is at home and the favorite according to the odds makers for the first time since Week 4 when they were favored over Wake Forest by a touchdown before ultimately falling. Since that point, the Hoosiers have just one win and enter Saturday’s showdown in the midst of a three game losing streak.
Maryland, on the other hand, got the win both straight up and against the spread in their last game, but the Terps haven’t been a power hose of late either, dropping back-to-back games against Penn State and Minnesota prior to beating Michigan State.
Still, the Terps are 5-2 SU overall, but are just 3-4 ATS. This past week was the first time Maryland was the underdog in a game.
Key Stat
Maryland is a strong rushing team. The lack of a consistent passing game has hindered their ability to tally too many points against the big boys, but a ground game averaging the 17th most yards per game certainly has its perks within the red zone.
The Terps have pushed the ball into the end zone 19 times in their 26 trips inside the 20. They’ve added five field goals on top of that. They’ve gotten a touchdown on 73-percent of their red zone trips and came away with some points in 92.3-percent of them.
This is one stat that paints the Hoosiers and the Terps as direct opposites. Indiana is amongst the worst teams in the red zone. They’re scoring just 70.8-percent of the time and have 10 touchdowns in 24 chances.
Interestingly, one of the few teams worse than them is the same Northwestern team that beat the Hoosiers in Week 8. Indiana will have to perform better in the red zone against Maryland.
Revenge Angle
The Hoosiers handled the Terps with ease last season in Maryland, winning 47-28 after Maryland beat the Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium in their first ever meeting a year prior.
In last year’s contest, Maryland out rushed Indiana, nearly doubling up their yard total and earning 6.8 yards per carry to the Hoosiers’ 3.8. The difference came in the air. The Terps could do nothing to stop the Hoosiers. Nate Sudfeld threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns. Simmie Cobbs Jr. caught nine passes for 190 of those yards. Neither will factor into the game on Saturday. Sudfeld is in the NFL and Cobbs is sidelined with an ankle injury.
Richard Lagow has taken over under center and it’s been a struggle. He tossed a pair of interceptions in the Week 8 loss to Northwestern and has thrown 11 interceptions in the last five games.
The team is still averaging 289.9 passing yards per game. That’s good, but it’s more a result of a rushing attack ranked No. 102 in the nation. The turnovers make the offense vulnerable and accounts for the difference in an offense ranked No. 50 in total yards and No. 99 in scoring.
This is not the same team that beat Maryland last year. The Terps have looked like the better team all season long and are positioned to for revenge. They beat Indiana on the road two years ago and showed they can play well on the road last week with a win over Michigan State.
Free ATS Pick
Lagow can move the ball on offense, but he’s got little support on the ground and has made his share of mistakes. Those mistakes have been magnified in the team’s losing skid.
In Indiana’s win over Maryland last year, they did it with the pass, but the team still was able to move the ball on the ground. The Hoosiers have converted just 38 of their 109 chances with third down, mostly in the air.
While Maryland has somewhat of the reverse problem on offense, the Terrapins have a very good defensive secondary and a good pass rush. Look for the Terps to pick off Lagow, giving the offense good field position and holding Indiana’s offense at bay. All of this adds up to Maryland’s diverse running attack doing its thing behind Lorenzo Harrison and Ty Johnson against an average-at-best run defense for Indiana.
The Hoosiers’ defense is better than it’s been in years past, but this defense isn’t elite and the offense that once carried this team has dried up and gone cold. That’s not a good sign for the home team.
Maryland gets the win, but a five-point spread is a reasonable number. Look for the Terps to top that, but this game could be within a score.
College Football Odds: Maryland 27, Indiana 20
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