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Neither history nor recent trends favor the Eastern Michigan Eagles as they take on the Miami (OH) Redhawks in Week 9 action on Saturday afternoon. The Eagles have dropped two of three games while Miami has won back-to-back contests. Meanwhile, the Redhawks have also beaten Eastern Michigan in each of their last eight meetings. You have to go back more than two decades to find the last time the Eagles topped the Red Hawks.
This matchup in Week 9 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Rynearson Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami (OH) +6.5
Eastern Michigan -6.5
Odds Analysis
This series has been owned by Miami (OH), but the Eagles come into play having covered the spread in five straight conference games. They also played a ranked Western Michigan team tough on the road in Week 8. Eastern Michigan is also undefeated ATS at home this season.
On the other hand, the Redhawks are coming off two straight wins which helps mask their 0-6 start, but those wins came against Kent State and Bowling Green, not exactly powerhouse programs right now.
Miami has covered the spread in four of their last six games—all as underdogs, but Eastern Michigan has covered six straight; though only one of those was as the favorite. The Eagles have only been favorited in two games all season heading into Week 9 and covered both.
Matchup to Watch
The Redhawks are a pretty good team defensively given their record and are the epitome of average in the air—at least based on passing yards per game. Still, this team cannot score. They’re averaging 20 points per game which makes them one of the lowest scoring teams in college football.
The reason for that is a complete inability to move the ball on the ground. This failure of the running game has yielded a 30.2-percent conversion rate on third downs, besting just seven teams. The team has also scored a touchdown on just half of their red zone chances.
Eastern Michigan’s defense ranks below Miami’s statistically thanks to a weak secondary. The Eagles rely on the offense and outscore opponents, scoring 31.5 points per game and allowing 30.4. While a good offense can beat Eastern Michigan deep, it’s tough to take control on the ground. An offense that already is quite limited on the ground can hardly be expected to find success carrying the ball.
If the Redhawks are to stay in this game and have a chance at an upset, or even a chance at covering the spread, it’ll be up to the team’s offense to keep pace with the Eagles. Eastern Michigan has scored at least as many points as Miami is averaging in every single game this season. That means, the Redhawks need a well average defensive performance or the offense to come out of nowhere.
Revenge Angle
Eastern Michigan has a chance to beat Miami (OH) for the first time since 1993. Having outperformed expectations most of the season and having the far better offense just goes to make that possible.
Sometimes when a school amasses such a long winning streak against another program it becomes hard to break out of that trend, but everything points to this year being the year for the Eagles.
Last year, Miami (OH) beat Eastern Michigan by 15-points. Brogan Roback threw just seven passes in that game, completing two, but he will play a bigger role on Saturday. The junior has back-to-back 300-yard games and has two three touchdown games this month.
He’s got a deep crop of receivers to throw to as well with four different players having notched at least 234 yards and three touchdowns each. The Redhawks just don’t have the firepower to matchup.
Free ATS Pick
The Redhawks recent wins don’t really show growth for a team that started off 0-6. Given the opposition and how the Redhawks looked the last two weeks, they’re purely an aesthetic improvement for the team’s record, offering little more than a shine for a team that’s just as bad as it was a few weeks ago. Miami (OH) has just been playing teams just as fundamentally flawed as it is. The Eagles are a better program right now.
Eastern Michigan is not a great team, but it’s a much better team. The Eagles didn’t have the stamina to beat Western Michigan, but the squad put up an impressive fight, particularly early in the game. That fight is more than we’ve seen from Miami (OH).
The Eagles are a strong offensive team. The Redhawks are not. When it’s all said and done, the Eagles should be able to outscore the Redhawks by a sizeable margin. Look for Eastern Michigan to continue its success at home, particularly ATS, beating Miami (OH) by a couple scores to get back into the win column.
College Football Odds: Eastern Michigan 35, Miami (OH) 23
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