The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have watched a once-promising season go down the tubes quickly, and now simply making a bowl game is going to be an uphill slog. Notre Dame will aim to take a big step that way with a Week 9 upset of the Miami Hurricanes.
The Fighting Irish are playing at home but has struggled enough this season that they will be the underdogs. Miami has lost three straight after a hot start and will also be aiming to get on track.
This matchup in Week 9 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 29th, 2016, at 12:30 p.m. ET at Notre Dame Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami -2.5
Notre Dame +2.5
Over/Under 59
Odds Analysis
Notre Dame has taken a lot of lumps publicly because of its poor record, so it’s not a surprise that the Hurricanes are garnering 67 percent of the betting action.
The scoring total could be tabbed a bit high since 80 percent of the early action has focused on choosing the “under.”
Notre Dame is both 2-5 straight up and 2-5 trying to cover the spread. The Fighting Irish are only 1-3 against the spread at home this season.
Miami is 4-3 straight up and 4-3 covering this year. The Hurricanes have gone 4-3 against the spread as favorites.
Key Stat
17.3. That’s the number of points that Miami’s defense is holding opposing offenses to this season. The defense ranks No. 12 in the country for scoring defense.
The Hurricanes are holding opponents to only 343 yards of total offense. Miami has lost three in a row but the culprit has been the offense, which only scored 16 points per game in that stretch.
The defense has a tough task in trying to contain Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer. He has thrown for 1,775 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the season.
Kizer, though, has been very ineffective the past two weeks as the Fighting Irish have only scored a combined 13 points in losses to North Carolina State and Stanford.
Miami will aim to shut down Kizer in this one, and if that happens the Hurricanes will have a great shot of claiming the road win.
Player to Watch
Brad Kaaya - The Notre Dame defense has been good of late, but must contain the talented Miami quarterback. Kaaya has thrown for 1,696 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions this season.
He threw for 323 yards with two touchdowns and an interception last time out against Virginia Tech, but the offense could only muster 16 points. Notre Dame has allowed 27.7 points per game and nearly 400 yards per game, so there is a chance Kaaya has a big game.
Free ATS Pick
Notre Dame has been a bit unlucky this season, losing all five of its games by one possession. However, some of those losses have come to suspect competition, taking shine off of high expectations.
Coach Brian Kelly was just given a vote of confidence, and he will aim to start a turnaround before calls for his firing get louder.
Miami has lost three in a row but it came against talented teams Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia Tech. Notre Dame hasn’t been as good as those other teams this season, which is why the Hurricanes are favored to get their season back on track.
Even though Notre Dame has struggled, a loss in this one isn’t cut and dried. The offense has to turn it around, and Kizer has the capability to do that. The home field advantage should help keep the Fighting Irish in this, but in the end Kaaya should do enough to help spur Miami to the victory.
In a season of close losses, chalk another one up for Notre Dame in this matchup as the Hurricanes will barely cover.
College Football Odds: Miami 27, Notre Dame 24
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