Still winless in Big Ten play, the Michigan State Spartans will take to their home field in Week 9 confident knowing they’ve taken seven of the last weight meetings with the hated in-state rival Michigan Wolverines and covered seven of those contests against the spread. This season however is a down one in East Lansing, and linemakers aren’t giving them much of a shot at competing lining them the biggest dogs of the Mark Dantonio era.
Watch this regular season Week 9 matchup live on Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Spartan Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan -23.5
Michigan State +23.5
Over/Under 54
Odds Analysis
With the Wolverines undefeated at 7-0 and the Spartans yet to taste the thrill of victory in conference play, it’s been all one way traffic on the betting line in this one. Michigan originally opened up as lofty 19.5 point road favorites for this B1G East tilt, but was then bet up to -21.5 where it sat for a handful of hours after the open. It wasn’t done moving however with it jumping all the way up to -23.5 Tuesday evening.
Whether this steam is warranted or its just a couple groups inflating the number before coming back in over the top and taking an even larger position on MSU remains to be seen.
Player to Watch
The Spartans have gotten some wretched play under center this season. Tyler O’Connor got first dibs as QB1, but he failed to impress in completing just over 61 percent of his passes for 1257 yards and an 11:6 TD/INT ratio. While those numbers aren’t terrible, they weren’t enough to lead his team to victory.
Dantonio made the switch last week to redshirt frosh Brian Lewerke, but the offense hardly benefitted from the change. He completed just 11 of 24 passes for 156 yards and an interception. While he did rack up 79 yards on the ground, most of the yardage was accrued after he dropped back for a pass, couldn’t find anything he liked, and then tucked it and ran. That simply won’t do against a ferocious U of M defense that leads the Big Ten with 25 sacks.
Revenge Angle
It looked to be all over but the crying for Sparty in last season’s tilt with the Wolverines in the Big House. But with 10 seconds remaining, Michigan failed to get a punt off that would have likely seen the game end with Sparty making a deep heave with laterals to follow in hopes of pulling off a miracle.
Instead, the punter dropped the snap and when he tried to pick it up, he got popped and the ball landed directly in the hands of an MSU defender who proceeded to run into the end zone to lead the Spartans to one of the most improbable victories the sport has ever seen. Michigan went from the penthouse to the outhouse in the blink of an eye, and you know darn well that loss has been eating at Jim Harbaugh’s craw for the past year. I bet he’s had dreams about disemboweling the Spartans in front of their home crowd ever since.
Free ATS Pick
Normally, I’d look to throw the records out for a rivalry like this. But when you pair last season’s choke job with Michigan finally being leaps and bounds better than its in-state rival and Harbaugh out for blood, I can’t help but think the Wolverines will stop at nothing to embarrass MSU and not take their foot off the gas until the clock reads double zeroes.
This season can’t end soon enough for Sparty. If it doesn’t win four of its final five games, it isn’t going bowling. A trip to Happy Valley is still on the docket as is a visit from the Buckeyes. The team just doesn’t have it defensively this season, and the offense has done nothing, save for against Notre Dame, to give the unit any relief. Michigan owns the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the country, and it’s going to have its way with whichever quarterback is under center and stop Sparty’s ground game cold. The end result could go down in history as one of the most one-sided meetings of this rivalry.
College Football Odds: Michigan 55, Michigan State 10
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