The Navy Midshipmen and South Florida Bulls met for the very first time in program history last season, with Navy coming away victorious with the triple-threat offense performing admirably and the Bull’s rushing attack drying up. South Florida gets to host the rematch here in Week 9, hoping for some revenge as we match up the current division leaders in the American Athletic Conference.
Watch this regular season Week 9 matchup live on Friday, October 28, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Navy +8
South Florida -8
Over/Under 63
Odds Analysis
The spread is up and the total is down from where the odds opened for this college football showdown. Bettors are bullish on USF and as a result, we’ve seen the spread jump up from seven points to eight. The total, however, has fallen three points from the opening number despite two strong offenses.
With the spread rising, bettors have chosen to chalk up the loss at Temple as a fluke, expecting the return home for the Bulls to help turn the tides. While that is certainly possible, the upset loss to the Owls was the team’s second straight loss ATS after a torrid start to the year. The Bulls have beaten up against teams early, but losses against Florida State and Temple raise red flags.
On the other side, Navy comes in fresh off back-to-back wins both SU and ATS. The Midshipmen easily topped Memphis last week after topping Houston despite being underdogs by more than two touchdowns. Playing this game on the road complicates things a bit, but the trends still favor Navy.
Player to Watch
Navy does all of its offensive work on the ground and, as a result, controls time of possession.
The key to the Midshipmen’s triple-option attack is the one controlling the plays and Will Worth has been exceptional under center filling in for Tago Smith. He hasn’t missed a step.
Worth has carried the ball nearly three times as often as the next most common rusher: Chris High. The Bulls cannot ignore High or Dishan Romine or even Toneo Gulley or Darryl Booner depending who is on the field at any given time, but Worth needs to be the focal point. The USF defense needs to stop the run and to do that, they need to contain Worth and force him to throw the ball. He’s been okay when they’ve gone to the air, but his only major target is Jamir Tillman.
The Bulls defense failed to stop Temple last week. They allowed 46-points to the mediocre offense and especially struggled against the run. They allowed the Owls to gain 6.7 yards a carry and gave up 210 yards and a pair of touchdowns on just 20 carries to Ryquell Armstead.
If USF struggled to stop Temple, they’ll be way over matched defensively against the Midshipmen, meaning the Bulls will need to win in an offensive-driven game against a pretty good Navy defense.
Key Matchup
The South Florida offense is strong and boasts an excellent rushing attack as well as a strong passing game, too.
Quinton Flowers is a very good and diverse quarterback. He leads the team in rushing with 745 yards and adds a 58.5-percent completion percentage in the air with 1,717 yards and 15 touchdowns to only five interceptions.
On the ground, Flowers is complimented by Marlon Mack who is gaining 6.8 yards per carry as he continues to get better. He’s also recorded 10 touchdown, reaching the end zone at least once in every game this year.
Shutting down those two is the primary goal for Navy’s defense. They did that last year and the Bulls scored just 17 points. They’re averaging 42.4 points per game this year as one of college football’s more prolific offenses.
Last year, however, Flowers was just 12-for-20 against the Bulls. He did have 208 yards, but didn’t throw a touchdown. He also rushed for only 15 yards. Mack, meanwhile, had a touchdown, but just 29 yards on 10 carries.
Part of the problem with the Navy offense that doubled up USF’s time of possession. The other issue was the defense. USF could only convert three of 11 third down opportunities and recorded only nine first downs all game long.
This year, Navy’s defense has been strong compared to USF’s. The Midshipmen are holding the opposition to 25 points per game.
Free ATS Pick
Watch out for a potential upset on Friday night. Navy should be able to run all over the Bull’s defense with Worth using the pass just enough. We’ve seen USF struggle against mediocre running offenses. They really stand little chance against the Navy’s triple-threat that’s resulted in 293.2 rushing yards per game, the fourth most in the nation.
We’re going to have a shootout. Both of these offenses are good, though different in their approach. Flowers should have a good game, but there’s going to be too much pressure on him and not enough time with Navy controlling time of possession. Flowers will need to be nearly perfect and completely healthy after a hamstring injury.
Flowers should be healthy and might just be as close to perfect as you can get, but ultimately that still might not be enough. The difference comes down to the Navy defense against South Florida’s defense. The defensive—and Special Teams—edge goes to Navy and with it so does this game.
College Football Odds: Navy 35, South Florida 33
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