Since joining the Big Ten, the Wisconsin Badgers have no doubt been the Nebraska Cornhuskers biggest nemesis. It stems back to the 70-31 pounding the Badgers administered upon the Huskers in the 2012 B1G Championship Game. Now at the top of the West Division heap, Mike Riley’s squad would solidify its place atop the standings in Week 9 if it were to log a win in Madison for the first time since 1966.
This contest in Week 9 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Camp Randall Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Nebraska +8
Wisconsin -8
Odds Analysis
The Badgers originally opened as 6.5 point home favorites for this crucial Week 9 tilt with the Cornhuskers. Wisconsin has already taken on four top 10 ranked teams and gone 2-2 SU and a perfect 4-0 ATS in those games.
This will however be the first time they were favored, but that hasn’t stopped the betting public from moving the line up to -8 even though better than 56 percent of the tickets written are supporting Big Red plus the points.
Big money is supporting the home team causing the reverse line movement.
Revenge Angle
If ever there was a spot for the Huskers to rise up and finally get the best of the Badgers, this is it. The team is undefeated at 7-0 for the first time since 2001. That just so happened to be the last time Nebraska played in the National Championship Game. Whether this team is a contender or pretender remains to be seen with its strength of schedule frowned upon by the Sagarin Ratings which rates it as the No. 67 toughest in the country.
Wisconsin won but failed to cover last year’s meeting in Lincoln where it scored the 23-21 win as 2.5 point favorites. Big Red’s two visits to Camp Randall in B1G play saw it fall 48-17 in 2011, and then 59-24 in 2014. Needless to say, but Wiscy easily covered the spread in both contests with the over cashing twice as well. Only one of the team’s last five meetings combined to go under the closing total.
Key Stat
I’m not sure linemakers can set the total low enough for those looking to bet it to even entertain the thought of hitting the over. Though each of these teams turns the ball over better than 1.3 times per game and the defenses force 1.6 and 2.0 turnovers per game respectively, this matchup pits two of the best scoring defenses in the country with the Cornhuskers allowing just 17.7 points per game ( No. 14 ) and the Badgers 14.3 points per game ( No. 4 ).
Not surprisingly, the under is a combined 11-3 in their 14 games played to date.
Free ATS Pick
This is Big Red’s best opportunity to steal a game from the Badgers in Madison. It sports the better overall offense and a defense that should be able to excel against what Wiscy lines up against it over the course of the game. I’m not sold on either of Wisconsin’s quarterbacks and it’s going to be tough for Corey Clement to find much of any breathing room on the ground. On the flipside, Tommy Armstrong Jr. likely won’t be able to do much damage through the air and every yard gained on the ground will be earned.
I foresee this game being a battle of field position throughout. Just about as ugly if not uglier than Wiscy’s 17-9 win in Iowa City last week. I believe the Badgers come out on top, but have no desire to lay a likely inflated number. Nebraska will quiet some of its naysayers but still go down in a close defeat.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin 13, Nebraska 9
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