The New Mexico Lobos and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are set to meet up in Week 9 action on Saturday. There’s plenty of history between these two Mountain West Conference schools. Having matched up 23 times in their history, Hawaii holds a five game edge, but the recent meetings swing the advantage the other way as the Lobos have beaten the Rainbows each of the last six times these teams have met, dating back 25 years.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 9 game is set for Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 11:59 p.m. ET at Hawaiian Airlines Field at Aloha Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Mexico +4
Hawaii -4
Odds Analysis
Opening at two, the spread quickly jumped to four with everyone taking the Rainbow Warriors on the small spread after New Mexico’s trip to the Islands.
New Mexico has covered the spread in back-to-back games, but is still only 3-4 ATS this season and 1-2 ATS on the road. Hawaii’s definitely been the better bet with a 5-2 ATS mark, covering four of their last five.
As for the total, if you’re looking to play on that, look for a high scoring game. The over has paid out in nine straight Lobos games and 10 of the Rainbow Warriors’ last 12, including six of their last seven home games.
Matchup to Watch
Hawaii does not have a good defense. The Rainbow Warriors are allowing the opposition to score 37.4 points per game with much of the damage coming on the ground.
That doesn’t bode well for the Rainbow Warriors with the No. 1 ground offense coming to town on Saturday night.
After allowing 389 rushing yards on 87 carries to the Air Force, Hawaii now contends with New Mexico, a team even more skewed towards running.
The Lobos are gaining 374.1 yards per game on the ground. That’s mindboggling. There’s already eight players with a rushing touchdown for the Lobos, seven with at least 124 rushing yards and four with at least 333 yards.
Tyrone Owens and Teriyon Gipson are big play guys. The former has 687 yards on 88 carries for a 7.8 yards per carry average. He’s the main back. Gipson, meanwhile, has only 48 carries, but is averaging 13 yards per carry. Rich McQuarley is a more typical inside runner. He’s the one that sees the ball on goal line plays and short yardage situations. Even in that context, however, he’s still averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He’s also notched 10 of the team’s 27 rushing scores.
For the Rainbow Warriors to win that don’t need to stop the Lobos’ running game. That’s impossible. They do, however, need to contain it. Hawaii won their last game while allowing nearly 400 yards on the ground.
If Hawaii can completely silence the passing attack and nab at least a couple big stops—or better yet, turnovers—throughout that game, that’s enough to get the win. That’s not a lot to ask, but could still be a tall order for a defense ranked 120th in scoring defense. If they fail to live up to those low expectations, New Mexico will record the upset.
Key Stat
Turnovers are a big problem for both teams, each having lost more than they’ve gained.
New Mexico has only lost the ball 10 times compared to 16 for the Rainbow Warriors, but that’s without throwing the ball much at all, limiting the chances of getting picked off. Even so, the Lobos have given up four interceptions.
Both teams are in the negative in turnover margin, though Hawaii nabbed three turnovers from Air Force last week, including a key interception deep in their own territory. In that game, they only gave the ball up twice themselves. That was instrumental in the upset victory. Look for a similar story on Saturday.
Free ATS Pick
Look for Hawaii to halt the losing streak against New Mexico. The original two-point spread was an easy one. With the spread up to four, it’s a bit trickier, but you can still bank on the Rainbow Warriors covering the spread.
After all, even with Hawaii struggling to defend the run, they managed to beat a similar team in the Air Force last week. Much like New Mexico, the Falcons are all run, no pass on offense and they actually claim a better defense, at least statistically as the Lobos are giving up 33.9 points per game.
Sure, New Mexico is a little better on the ground than Air Force and with Hawaii’s defensive inefficiencies that matters, but nabbing a quick early lead will help with that; the Lobos struggle coming from behind.
Hawaii has the more diverse offense and playing at home should factor into the game for the Rainbow Warriors, too. With Dru Brown, Dicemy Saint Juste and Paul Harris, gets on the board first, jumping ahead early. Provided that happens, from there it becomes a simple game of matching New Mexico score for score since the defense cannot be trusted.
College Football Odds: Hawaii 35, New Mexico 30
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