Aside from the team name, the New Mexico Aggies and Texas A&M Aggies have very little in common. The only other similarity is both teams will be at Kyle Field on Saturday night as they face each other in Week 9 action. That’s about it. Otherwise, this is more than just a David versus Goliath matchup, it’s the by far the biggest lopsided battle of the week.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 9 game is set for Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kyle Field.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Mexico State +43.5
Texas A&M -43.5
Over/Under 69.5
Odds Analysis
Both the spread and the total are trending up in this lopsided matchup between a top-10 program based on its current ranking and a struggling Sun Belt conference opponent. The spread is up two and a half points from its 41-points starting point while the total is up a point and a half from 68.
New Mexico State has been the underdog in every game they’ve played, covering the spread in four of those games and winning two outright. Texas A&M has been favored in every game save for the showdown with Alabama. They’ve failed to beat the spread in three straight games, though the only other time they were favored by this much, they covered easily, topping Prairie View 67-0.
Key Stat
Pretty much any statistical comparison paints the same picture for this matchup: these two teams are at completely different levels. You have one team ranked amongst the best of the best in college football and another ranked amongst the worst in a weak conference.
One of the many stats that paint this picture is third down conversion percentage. The New Mexico Aggies have allowed the opposition to covert almost half of the time and their .490 mark is better than just four other teams in the nation.
Texas A&M isn’t a great defensive team, but the Aggies are ranked much better in this category, allowing the other team to covert 36-percent of the time, ranking No. 46 in the nation.
Look-ahead Situation
Let’s face it. This game is not a contest. Texas A&M is going to win and they’re going to win big. Whether or not the lesser Aggies can at least cover the spread is up for debate, but even that seems a bit lopsided.
With that, the better of the Aggies teams will look to use this game as a bit of a reset after Trevor Knight was challenged by Alabama’s defense and the team took its first loss of the year. This is a bounce back scenario if there ever was one.
The Texas A&M offense was is averaging 36.4 points per game and 496.4 yards per game, but were stifled by the Crimson Tide, held to 278 total yards and 14-points. They couldn’t convert on third downs, and couldn’t move the ball on the ground.
The offense should find their footing again against New Mexico State easily. After all, those Aggies are giving up 41.6 points and 504.6 yards per game.
Texas A&M should be the fourth team this year to score more than 50-points against this defense. Knight will have a chance to get himself right at least early in the game and Trayveon Williams should be able to run at will.
Free ATS Pick
It’s hard to justify giving such a huge number of points, but this game will get ugly. It’s a huge mismatch of talent. Texas A&M can score enough to cover the spread. They’re on offensive powerhouse against good teams. They’ll be an absolute juggernaut against a New Mexico State defense that’s one of the worst in all of college football.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, their offense just doesn’t have the talent to do much of anything against Texas A&M’s defense. They’ve got a quarterback with just one more touchdown than interception and a running game ranked No. 111 in the nation. Turnovers are an issue and that provides even more chances for the other Aggies to keep running up the score.
Really, the only wildcard here is how long will Kevin Sumlin go with his regulars and how long will be push the envelope in his play calling. If the game against Prairie View earlier this year is any indication, you can expect Texas A&M to at least keep the foot on the peddle enough to cover the large 43.5-point spread. After all, they beat the Panthers by 67-points in a shutout.
College Football Odds: Texas A&M 63, New Mexico State 10
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