The Northwestern Wildcats have turned their season around with three straight wins in Big Ten play against Iowa, Michigan State and Indiana. This Week 9 tilt in the ‘Shoe is certain to be a sobering experience with the Ohio State Buckeyes their toughest opponent to date that just so happens to be coming off a shocking loss in Happy Valley that derailed their college football playoff aspirations for the time being. Not a good omen if you’re an Evanston native.
This matchup in Week 9 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Ohio Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Northwestern +21.5
Ohio State -21.5
Odds Analysis
With the Wildcats showing some spunk over the last three weeks and the Buckeyes in a likely letdown spot after absorbing their first defeat of the season, the betting public has thrown some love in the direction of Pat Fitzgerald’s squad since the line for this game first opened.
Ohio State originally opened up as hefty 24 point favorites but has since been bet down to -21.5 with only 51.7 percent of the tickets written backing the home team. This is the lowest percentage of bets taken on the Buckeyes in a game this season.
Player to Watch
A key to the Wildcats drastically turning their season around has been Justin Jackson. He’s gone off for an average of 121 yards per game while averaging 5.2 yards per carry in the team’s last three wins. While he failed to hit the end zone last week against Indiana, he did so a total of three times against the Spartans and Hawkeyes.
Ohio State ranks No. 24 in defending the run ( 121.1 YPG ), but it hasn’t run up against many rushing offenses with a pulse other than Oklahoma. The Sooners were however forced to abandon the run due to the game being a blowout, but still managed to rush for 178 yards on 35 carries ( 5.1 YPC ). If Northwestern is to stick around in this one, Jackson must continue to run the ball at a high level so as to allow his offense to continue moving the chains and keep the Buckeyes potent attack on the sideline.
Matchup to Watch
The Buckeyes offense has been tough to watch over the last three weeks. J.T. Barrett only threw for 93 yards against Indiana with a 1:1 TD/INT ratio. Though he did throw for 226 and 245 yards the last two weeks against Wisconsin and Penn State, he only completed 58.6 percent of his passes against the Badgers and averaged just 5.7 yards per pass against the Nittany Lions.
Northwestern’s defense excels in defending the run. It’s allowing just 132 yards per game ( No. 32 ) at 3.8 yards per carry ( No. 34 ). Curtis Samuel is likely to have his hands full trying to dissect this defense. That means Barrett is going to have to figure out a way to have success through the air. With the Wildcats conceding 282.4 passing yards per game ( No. 111 ), the Buckeyes excelling via the pass will be a tell-tale sign as to whether they can cover this lofty impost or not.
Free ATS Pick
Each of Urban Meyer’s three national championship seasons included a loss in the regular season. Normally a team in the hunt for a national title would suffer a letdown the week after incurring their first loss of the season. That’s not the case with Meyer. Since 2013, the Buckeyes check in 2-0 SU and ATS off a loss in the regular season and they won those games by an average of 47.5 points per game.
Northwestern’s resurgence has been nice, but playing the likes of the Hawkeyes, Spartans and Hoosiers hardly compares to what it’ll be lining up against Saturday afternoon. The Horseshoe has also been a house of horrors for the Wildcats who’ve dropped each of their last five visits by an average of 34.6 points per game. Normally this would have been a look ahead spot with Nebraska coming in next week, but with the Buckeyes coming off a loss, I can’t help but think UNW will have their full attention.
College Football Odds: Ohio State 55, Northwestern 20
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