The San Diego State Aztecs enter Week 9 red hot and have a very favorable matchup that should extend their three game winning streak to four in a row. The Utah State Aggies just don’t have the firepower to contend with the stout Aztec defense or the defense to stop the nation’s leading rusher. Last season this matchup resulted in a huge mismatch and we could be in for much of the same this time around.
This contest in Week 9 of the regular season will go down Friday, October 28, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Diego State -6.5
Utah State +6.5
Odds Analysis
The odds opened with Utah State as 6.5-point underdogs at home and the line has stayed stagnant here in the early going.
Save for a surprising loss against South Alabama on the road to open the month of October, the Aztecs have taken care of business against their opposition with the defense in particular stepping up the last three games.
Overall, San Diego State is a mediocre 3-3-1 ATS while Utah State is 3-4 ATS. The Aggies, however, have dropped their last two contests ATS and are 1-2 ATS in their three games as the underdog.
Last Meeting
The history between these Mountain West schools is limited, having faced each other twice: once in 2010 and once last season.
San Diego State crushed Utah State in both games, including a 48-14 shellacking last year at Qualcomm Stadium. In the game, the Aztecs covered the spread by 38-points.
In the game, everything went the way of the Aztecs. San Diego State dominated in time of possession, holding possession for 14 and a half more minutes than the Aggies. Utah State was also nearly doubled up in total yards, all of that coming on the ground.
Donnel Pumphrey ran for 181 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 23 touches. Three other players ran for a touchdown in the game as the team amassed 336 rushing yards compared to 144 for the Aggies.
Pumphrey is back for one more season and he’s carrying the ball better than before. He’s averaging a yard more per carry this year compared to last and has continued to be a factor in the passing game, too.
The veteran back out of Las Vegas has rushed for at least 135 yards in six straight games and has scored a touchdown in all seven games this year, scoring two or more four times and three or more twice.
Pumphrey was the difference maker last year and should be again, but another difference maker was turnovers. Utah State fumbled the ball four times, giving the ball up three times.
Aggies quarterback Kent Myers also threw an interception in the game. Myers needs to have a big game if Utah State is to record the upset at home. He is coming off a three touchdown performance
Matchup to Watch
Pumphrey creates a mismatch against most teams. He’s been as consistent as they come and has passed the great Marshall Faulk for a number of team records.
The running attack is filthy and destroyed Utah State last year. This year, it should be able to do the same. The Aggies have what’s been a statistically solid defense, but that’s a bit skewed with 20-points allowed to a dismal Fresno State offense and just six allowed to Weber State at the beginning of the year.
Utah State relies on its defense for wins, but the defense will be very challenged against San Diego State’s rushing attack. Meanwhile, Christian Chapman is a reliable player under center. He’s not going to rack up yards. He doesn’t have to, but he does provide enough. He completed 13-of-18 in his last game and has a 9:3 touchdown to interception ratio.
It’ll be worth watching the Aztec’s strength on the ground against the Aggies’ strength on defense, but the real matchup to watch is Utah State’s offense which came to life last week against the San Diego State defense that’s kept opponents to seven points or fewer in three straight weeks.
Overall, the Aztecs rank No. 13 in the nation in fewest points allowed and have been able to put pressure on the quarterback. They sacked San Jose State five times last week. Utah State needs to protect Myers. He tossed three touchdowns to no interception against Fresno State, but before that had just four touchdowns and four interceptions so he will succumb to pressure.
If San Diego State can take out Utah State’s passing game, that leaves them matching up on the ground and the Aztecs win that every day of the week with the sport’s leading rusher on their team.
Free ATS Pick
Take out their win against Fresno State and the numbers for Myers have not been good. San Diego State’s defense is much better than Fresno’s.
Look for the Aztecs to get to Myers often, force him to throw into coverage and force a number of third and long chances that could result in a few turnovers as Utah State is forced to push the envelope.
This game has all the makings of one that could get out of hand really quickly. Look for the Aztecs to easily cover the spread. With San Diego State on the road, this final may not be quite as lopsided as what we saw between these teams last year, but it could be close.
With San Diego State likely to jump ahead early, that could leave the game as the Pumphrey Show even more than it usually is. Bank on Pumphrey running wild while San Diego State’s defense records its fourth straight single-digit performance.
College Football Odds: San Diego State 30, Utah State 9
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