What an upset that the SMU Mustangs were able to pull off last week! SMU was a 23.5-point underdog to the Houston Cougars, but ended up dominating from start to finish thanks to a surprisingly stalwart defensive effort. That was the first big win of the Chad Morris era and now SMU is hoping to seize the momentum from the win going forward. In Week 9 College Football, the Mustangs will travel east to take on another team on the rise, the Tulane Green Wave.
Watch this Week 9 matchup live on Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 4 p.m. ET at Benson Field at Yulman Stadium. This game will be broadcast on ESPN News.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tulane -1.5
SMU +1.5
Odds Analysis
SMU has been a solid ATS team this season, going 5-2 ATS and covering its last two. Despite Morris’ offensive background, the Mustangs have also been a good under team this year for bettors, with the under covering five of seven times.
Tulane, meanwhile, is 4-2-1 ATS but 2-1 ATS in the games in which the Green Wave were a favorite. The over has hit in three of the last four for the Green Wave.
Coaching Angle
The Green Wave are in their first year under new coach Willie Fritz and the results have been a mixed bag so far. Tulane hasn’t broken through with a conference win yet, but has looked much more competitive through the first half of the season, especially on defense. Despite playing in a division with high-octane offenses, Tulane has held offenses to just 5.24 yards per play and has kept games close. The Green Wave were one of the few defenses to limit Navy and held their own against Memphis as well.
However, on offense Fritz’s system has had a lot of growing pains. He has brought over the run-heavy style that made him successful but there has been no threat of a pass with how bad his quarterbacks have been. Tulane’s two quarterbacks have combined to complete just 40 percent of their passes and are averaging just 5.09 yards per pass attempt. Both are absolutely dreadful numbers and until there is some bite to the passing game, this team will find it tough to get wins against the better teams in the division.
Player to Watch
When Matt Davis went down with an injury in the Mustangs’ first game of the season, it was expected that the offense would struggle with a freshman becoming the new starter. While it’s been difficult, he has had a lot of help with a receiver like Courtland Sutton to throw the ball to.
Sutton has been a big play machine this season and is averaging 18.2 yards per catch. He has the size, strength, and speed needed to succeed at the next level and will be a problem for Tulane to match up against. Sutton caught almost half of Hicks’ passes in the upset of Houston and will once again be a prominent part of the offense.
Free ATS Pick
One thing to keep in mind in this game is how erratic Tulane’s kicker is. Andrew DiRocco has been fine on short field goals this season, going 4-4 inside the 30-yard line, but once the distance gets outside the 30 he has been awful. DiRocco has hit just 3 of 8 field goals of 31 yards or more this season. He has missed his last three kicks and won’t have much confidence if called upon.
Last week, SMU did the most impressive thing it has done all season by totally shutting down Houston’s rushing attack. The Mustangs would not allow the Cougars’ running attack to get going, allowing just 1.8 yards per carry in their finest performance all season. That doesn’t bode well for a Tulane team that relies on the run and is why we’re taking SMU.
College Football Odds: Mustangs 31, Green Wave 27
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