Texas Tech lost a wild 66-59 shootout to Oklahoma last week and hopes to break a three-game losing streak. The defensive troubles make the Red Raiders the underdog in this showdown as TCU aims to creep close to bowl eligibility.
This contest in Week 9 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas Tech +8
TCU -8
Over/Under 84.5
Odds Analysis
The extra point beyond a touchdown makes it a bit enticing to take the Red Raiders on the road, but the majority of the bettors aren’t biting. TCU is the pick by more than 59 percent of the early money.
The scoring total is high because of Texas Tech’s penchant for shootouts, and it isn’t high enough as 93 percent of the action is choosing the “over” in this matchup.
Texas Tech has done really well against the spread this season. The Red Raiders are just 3-4 straight up but have covered in five of their seven games. TCU is 4-3 straight up but has done much worse against the spread at just 1-6. That includes a 1-4 mark attempting to cover as the favorite.
Player to Watch
Patrick Mahomes II - The Texas Tech quarterback has thrown for 3,313 yards so far this year with 26 touchdowns and six interceptions. Last week, in the 66-59 loss to Oklahoma, he threw for 734 yards and five touchdowns with one interception. It was an incredible effort but still couldn’t result in a win.
The Red Raiders run a super lopsided offense behind Mahomes. The team ranks first in the nation for passing yards, averaging 542.7 passing yards a game. He has done a great job of keeping interceptions down even with so many attempts.
The Red Raiders are lacking talented personnel in many significant places, but Mahomes has been so good that he has kept his team in the game against most opponents. He will aim to follow that script against a TCU defense which is giving up 30.6 points per game.
Matchup to Watch
Texas Tech rushing defense against TCU running game - The Red Raiders defense couldn’t handle the Sooners last week either through the air or on the ground. TCU has thrown for more than 330 yards per game this season but quarterback Kenny Hill has been up and down.
In a perfect world, the Horned Frogs would prefer to move the ball effectively on the ground. Kyle Hicks leads the way among running backs, carrying the ball 100 times for 582 yards and seven touchdowns.
Texas Tech has allowed 219.7 yards per game on the ground this season. The secondary hasn’t been much better, but if the Red Raiders can keep TCU from running wild, at least there is a chance of picking off some passes.
Free ATS Pick
Texas Tech is a super entertaining team, although that hasn’t resulted in a lot of victories. TCU was pasted by West Virginia last time out and is aiming to bounce back.
It makes sense for the Horned Frogs to be the favorite, as they have been the more accomplished team this season. However, there could be an upset special in this one if Mahomes can continue his amazing run.
Texas Tech is not the better team but watch its star quarterback make some huge plays and help pull out the unlikely victory. The “over” is the easy call as the Red Raiders always play in high-scoring matchups.
College Football Odds: Texas Tech 48, TCU 41
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