After making, and winning, a bowl game for just the third time this century, it’s been a rough year for the San Jose Spartans and HC Ron Caragher. The Spartans have struggled to move the ball on offense without superstar RB Tyler Ervin and are scoring just 22.3 PPG. In College Football Week 9 action, the Spartans will play host to the UNLV Rebels, who are still looking to find their way under HC Tony Sanchez.
Watch this Week 9 matchup live on Saturday, October 29, 2016, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Spartan Stadium. This game will be broadcast on CBSS.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Jose State +3
UNLV -3
Over/Under 57.5
Odds Analysis
UNLV has been favored in half of its games this season, but will be a road favorite for the first time this season when taking on San Jose State. The line movement has been in favor of the Rebels and UNLV has moved from a 1-point favorite at open to a field goal favorite now. Over has been a good bet in Rebels games with seven of their eight matchups finishing over the total.
The Spartans have beaten just one FBS opponent this season and have gotten shellacked by a lot of teams. San Jose State has only stayed within two scores of its opponent in one of its losses, its only cover as an underdog, and that’s why the Spartans are 2-5 ATS.
Last Year’s Meeting
As good as Ervin was last season, it was QB Kenny Potter that led the Spartans to an overtime win over the Rebels in Las Vegas when these teams last met. The Rebels stacked the box in order to prevent Ervin from breaking off big runs against them, but that led Potter to be able to pick apart the defense. He ended up throwing for over 300 yards and two scores and that was the difference in the game.
Things have been a lot different for Potter this year. Without the threat of Ervin, teams aren’t lining up in the minimal coverage looks he saw last season and he has struggled. Over his last three games, Potter has completed just 52.6 percent of his passes and hasn’t cracked 160 yards passing. As a result, the offense has averaged just 10 PPG over its last three and is looking for answers.
Matchup to Watch
The Rebels are going to attempt to run the ball as much as possible against the Spartans defense and should have success. UNLV is averaging 5.63 yards a carry on the ground this season and as two quarterbacks in Johnny Stanton and Dalton Sneed that are both adept runners.
UNLV will need them to run the ball because both quarterbacks are very inaccurate. Stanton and Sneed have both completed under 47 percent of their passes this season and Sneed’s performance against Colorado State last week was atrocious. He completed just 7 of 23 passes, and although he threw two long touchdowns, those were after the team had already fallen behind by 35 points.
Free ATS Pick
The key to this game will be whether or not UNLV is able to run the ball. Although Sneed seemed to seize the starting job after Stanton’s injury, his performance last week no longer makes him a sure thing to start. No matter which quarterback is out there though, the Rebels are going to need to be able to move the chains on the ground in order to win.
UNLV has had its issues defensively, but should be able to stop a woeful San Jose State attack in this one. The Rebels can limit opponents on the ground and have fared alright this season. It may not be the prettiest win, but UNLV should be a bigger favorite here so take the Rebels and lay the three.
College Football Odds: Rebels 31, Spartans 24
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