After having their seasons end by the same opponent in 2014, the Wisconsin Badgers and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in the marquee matchup of the opening weekend of college football. Both teams enter ranked in the top 20 with Bama at No. 3, but both are faced with a number of questions, particularly on offense. With a pair of stout defenses, the under is gaining traction.
ODDS
When the money started flowing in the line started going up. Alabama opened as a 10.5-point favorite and climbed when the betting public started backing the No. 3 team in the country. The line spiked to its current -12. The total opened at 49.5, rather high for a pair of teams with so many questions on offense. I really like the under as the smart play in this one.
KEY MISMATCH
Alabama D line against Wisconsin O line
Alabama returns just 10 starters from a team that made it to the first ever College Football Playoff, but the Tide doesn’t rebuild – they reload. While there are questions on offense, there are none about the team’s defense, which might be the best in the country. The line is as deep and talented as it’s been in years with A’Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed back. They’re big, but mobile enough to face the fast-paced spread offenses that have become common in college football. The Badgers are entering unchartered waters with their O-line group. Their pregame depth chart listed a player without a single snap of college football experience and a number of questions about the right side of the line.
KEY STAT
140 – The key stat for Alabama is 140 yards rushing. The Tide is 69-3 since 2008 when rushing for at least that total. Derrick Henry will do the heavy lifting this year after running for 990 yards on 172 carries last season. Henry outrushed teammate T.J. Yeldon by 13 yards, and Yeldon turned into one of the program’s top five rushers in just three years.
BETTING ANGLE
Alabama will start its season where the Crimson Tide wanted to be last January. The third-ranked Tide will open against No. 20 Wisconsin at ATT Stadium. That’s where Ohio State won the national championship game after first beating SEC champion Alabama in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Sugar Bowl. Since the Tide won three national titles in a four season span, they’ve now gone consecutive seasons without even winning a bowl game. “The biggest question that I have might not get answered in this game, but over the course of time, is the dynamics of Alabama football have changed a little bit over the last couple of years. And I’ve been anxious to get back to what we used to do,” coach Nick Saban said. “Identity is not something that you inherit or assume or get from somebody else.” Over the last three seasons, Bama has opened with neutral site games against Michigan, Virginia Tech and West Virginia, winning all by an average score of 36-16.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
While both teams are faced with more uncertainty entering the season than in years past, we can be sure of one thing – Alabama will again be strong defensively. The Tide keeps running in blue chip prospects after the other blue chippers leave the program. It’s been a long time since Alabama’s been forced to replace so much of its offense and we still don’t know who’s quarterbacking the team. So we can expect a heavy dose of Henry running behind his massive offensive line. The Badgers will have a difficult time running the ball against Bama’s D, leaving QB Joel Stave on an island. Wisconsin will also experience growing pains under new head coach Paul Chryst, making him rethink the team’s plan of facing a SEC powerhouse in the opener. Both clubs will spend the entire game trying to establish the run and burning time off the clock. Even with the total dropping, the under play still has value.
Alabama 23, Wisconsin 13
The college football odds for this game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Crimson Tide was pegged as 10.5-point chalk while the total opened at 49.5. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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