Southern Mississippi boasts the superior record and has a great storyline as the school improved by eight wins in just two seasons. Despite that, they’ll have an uphill battle as they travel to Texas to take on a Washington team that’s been tested against much tougher competition throughout the year.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +8.5
Washington Huskies -8.5
Over/Under 56
ODDS ANALYSIS
The total started off a bit high and bettors took advantage of it, but it’s since dropped a point and a half down to 54.5. The spread, however, bumped up half a point to -9 with 67 percent of the betting public favoring the Huskies.
The under has cashed in seven of the Golden Eagles last 10 games and is 20-8 in the Huskies’ last 28. As for the spread, Southern Mississippi is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games.
KEY MISMATCH
The Southern Mississippi defense has its holes and is fresh off a loss where they gave up 45-points to Western Kentucky.
Over their last three games, the Golden Eagles have given up 90 points and against tougher competition earlier in the year allowed 50 to Texas State, 36 to Nebraska and 31 to Marshall to name a few.
Offensively, Washington is a solid team, particularly in the air where freshman Jake Browning continues to improve and will be looking to prove himself in a big game.
Browning completed 70 percent of his passes in the Apple Cup win over Wazzu and 90 percent in the game prior to that. Against Oregon State, he led the team to a 52-7 win with that 90 percent completion percentage and four touchdowns. Interceptions can be an issue for Browning, but his accuracy of late has been stellar.
KEY STAT
-2 – This is the turnover margin for the Golden Eagles this season. Overall, they’ve allowed two more turnovers than they’ve procured despite a 9-4 record.
Southern Mississippi has given up the ball 25 times, 13 of them on fumbles while their defense has 10 forced fumbles and 13 interceptions. The Eagles’ strong offense was able to overcome their turnovers most of the year, but the Huskies are a team that could take advantage of the turnovers if the Eagles give them the opportunity.
BETTING ANGLE
This bowl appearance has been a long time in the making for a Golden Eagles team that’s been able to turn the program around in a very short period of time.
Southern Mississippi has done well balancing offense and defense, but it’s the offense that’s really taken a step forward.
The Golden Eagles have scored the twelfth most points per game in the country with 40.6 and are averaging 519.8 total yards per game with the focus on the passing game, but an above average rushing attack to boot.
Quarterback Nick Mullens has thrown for 4,145 yards and 36 scores while the team has two running backs over 1,000 yards including Jalen Richard at 1,098 and Ito Smith at 1,088. They’re averaging 5.9 and 7.0 yards per carry respectively and have combined for 22 rushing touchdowns.
Those numbers show a top notch offense, but Washington’s formidable defense could stall the Eagles’ offense that’s taken advantage of its weaker competition.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Southern Mississippi’s offense has been very, very good and while I’m skeptical of the Golden Eagles’ ability against a tough Washington defense, they’ve shown plenty of firepower to at least keep this game close.
Look for a final closer than the spread would indicate, but the Huskies should still come away with the bowl victory.
Washington 27, Southern Mississippi 24
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