The 17th edition of Brady versus Manning could possibly be the last. So, how fitting a trip to Super Bowl 50 rides on the outcome.
Denver handed New England its first loss of the season back in November, but the Pats will have their full complement of receivers this time around to take on the Broncos top-ranked passing defense.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos +3.5
New England Patriots -3.5
Over/Under 44
ODDS ANALYSIS
The line came down a half-point to New England -3 but with some heavy juice. Denver failed to cover in its last three regular season home games and pushed last week as a 7-point favorite. The Broncos last home cover win was against the Pats on Nov. 29.
KEY INJURIES
Chandler Jones – Left Saturday’s win over Kansas City in the fourth quarter with an apparent knee injury and never returned. He was one of three New England defenders – along with linebackers Jamie Collins and Jerod Mayo – to not finish the game. The severity of the injuries is not known at this time.
Omar Bolden – Denver’s backup safety and kick returner is done for the postseason after he suffered a torn PCL in the first quarter Sunday. Look for Jordan Norwood and Andre Caldwell to be involved in the return game. Bolden had missed the previous four games due to a hamstring injury and his loss adds to the list of injuries in the banged-up secondary. Starting cornerback Chris Harris played Sunday with a shoulder injury that hindered his performance.
KEY MISMATCH
Tom Brady lost Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski for overlapping periods over the final seven weeks of the regular season, which dragged down the entire New England offense. With those three sharing the field Saturday against the Chiefs, Brady threw for 302 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers. The Broncos’ defense, featuring pass rushers DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller, plus cornerbacks Aquib Talib, Chris Harris and Bradley Roby, is tough, ranked No. 1 in total defense and pass defense in the regular season. But Brady threw for 280 yards and three scores when these teams met earlier in the year, and Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, sore shoulder and all, threw for 339 yards against them in the divisional round. Since the Patriots can’t run the football, the matchup between New England’s passing game and Denver’s pass defense likely decides the outcome. If Brady can move the ball against the Broncos as well as he did against the Chiefs, Denver probably won’t be able to keep up.
KEY STAT
60.0 – New England’s defensive third down percentage. The Patriots’ defense was on the field for 89 snaps last week because they couldn’t stop Kansas City on third down. Denver was good on 20 percent of its third down chances last week, but converted twice on the game-winning touchdown drive.
BETTING ANGLE
The Patriots answered a lot of questions by getting their offense back in gear with a strong home showing against Kansas City in the divisional round, winning 27-20 and covering the 5.5-point spread. New England is road chalk because Brady remains great at 38, while Manning looks to be washed up at 39. Denver is 5-4 SU and ATS in Manning’s nine starts this season. Denver won the regular season meeting, 30-24, in overtime on Nov. 29 as 2.5-point home dogs. Brock Osweiler started for the Broncos that night and Brady was without Edelman and Amendola and lost Gronkowski to an injury in the fourth quarter. This will be the 17th time Brady and Manning are facing each other with Brady holding an 11-5 edge, going 9-6-1 ATS in those meetings.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Patriots were treading water over the last month of the regular season as they dealt with numerous injuries, particularly on offense. They were a lock for the postseason and did enough to earn a bye in the first round. And that was all Bill Belichick and the players needed. Busting their ass to get the No. 1 seed wasn’t a priority. Getting healthy was. The Pats are confident enough to go on the road for the conference championship game and feel strongly about coming away with a victory. When the teams faced each other during the regular season, New England was without top receivers Edelman and Amendola, and Brady still threw for 280 yards with a pair of touchdowns against the league’s best defense. He feels good about the Pats’ chances with those two in the lineup and so do we. Take the visitors minus the points.
New England 26, Denver 18
Need to fund your account before the big game but don’t have your computer? No problem, BookMaker Sportsbook now offers a mobile betting cashier so you can deposit money directly from your smartphone. Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet, click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The contest between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos will take place Sunday, January 24, 2016, at 3:05 p.m. ET at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The matchup will be televised live on CBS.
