The Pittsburgh Steelers are the hottest team in the NFL heading into their showdown with the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Pittsburgh wasn’t even considered playoff-worthy after a loss to Dallas in Week 10, their fourth straight, left them at 4-5. But the Steelers responded, closing out the regular year with seven straight wins and knocking off Miami and Kansas City in the playoffs. They’ll need to score a touchdown, however, if they want to upset the Patriots.
Watch the AFC Championship Game matchup live on Sunday, January 22, 2017, at 6:40 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Pittsburgh Steelers +6
New England Patriots -6
Over/Under 50
Odds Analysis
The NFL got what it wanted in this one, two of the conference favorites battling for a trip to Super Bowl LI. The Pats are still the favorite and early action on the home team moved the line a half point after opening at New England -5.5. Both teams have been money against the spread lately so something has to give. The Pats are 6-0 ATS in their last six games and 7-1 ATS over their past eight. The Steelers have gone 7-1-1 ATS during their nine-game winning streak. The total has already dropped a half-point and I can see it falling further. Under bettors have a great chance if they get on board now.
Injury Report
Ladarius Green – The Steelers big tight end remains in the league’s concussion protocol and it’s unknown if he’ll be cleared to play against the Pats. Green is a big red zone target, but without him the Steelers failed to hit paydirt on their four red zone trips against the Chiefs. Pittsburgh was able to escape with a victory despite not scoring a touchdown and that likely won’t be the case in New England.
Chris Hogan – The Pats’ receiver had 95 receiving yards before exiting the Houston game with a leg injury. Hogan has built a strong rapport with Tom Brady this season and has become a Julian Edelman-like possession receiver. Danny Amendola returned from his ankle injury but didn’t catch a pass and Michael Floyd had only one reception. The pass catchers will need to step up if Hogan isn’t ready to play.
Matchup to Watch
When the Steelers hosted New England back in Week 7, they did so without Ben Roethlisberger, who didn’t play because of a knee injury sustained the previous game. Pittsburgh also had its bye in Week 8, and while Mike Tomlin wouldn’t say he was conceding the game, it had that feel to it. The Steelers needed to have Big Ben’s knee cleaned out and the off week came at a good time, though the team was in the middle of a four-game losing streak that almost took them out of postseason contention.
Pittsburgh was able to rally from that slide and won its final seven regular season games to claim the AFC North title and the playoff berth that came with it. Having Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown on the field in the postseason for the first time has the Steelers feeling good about their chances. Bell has been a beast on the ground running for 237 yards in two games, helping Pittsburgh control the clock. But the Steelers will need to score touchdowns to defeat the Pats and won’t be so lucky if they have to settle for six Chris Boswell field goals, like they did in their win over Kansas City.
Free ATS Pick
It looked like the Patriots needed a game to chisel off the rust after their first round playoff bye. Their effort against the Texans wasn’t the best, but they were still able to cover the 16-point spread, which shows us just how good this team is. Brady wasn’t sharp and the Houston defense had a lot to do with that, but he made plays in the teeth of that fierce unit. New England rarely plays poorly in consecutive games, and facing an opponent that’s more of a challenge should bring out the best in Brady and his mates.
New England’s defense is underrated and if the Steelers aren’t able to punch the ball in the end zone against the Pats, a trip to Houston isn’t happening. Pittsburgh was able to grind it out on the ground with Bell and that will likely be part of their game plan. The Pats will counter with their patented short passing game, and absent any explosive plays, the total will be out of reach. The Steelers have played aggressive defense during their nine-game winning streak and they’ll cover the spread, but Brady will pull out the victory for another shot at Super Bowl glory.
NFL Odds: Patriots 24, Steelers 20
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