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The obvious storyline is Manning vs. Brady for the 17th and possibly last time. Brady holds an 11-5 edge in their personal series, but Manning is 2-1 against Brady in championship games and the Broncos are seeking a record-tying eighth trip to the Super Bowl.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -3
Denver Broncos +3
Over/Under 44
WHY THE DENVER BRONCOS WILL WIN
The biggest reason for optimism for Broncos fans is that they’ve already beaten the Patriots this season. With Brock Osweiler at quarterback, Denver defeated New England 30-24 in overtime on Nov. 29.
The Broncos rushed for 179 yards in that game, led by C.J. Anderson’s 113 yards on only 15 carries, a total that included the game-winning 48-yard touchdown run in the extra session. And that game was typical of the success the team enjoyed when producing on the ground.
When Denver carves out room in the running game, they are difficult to beat. In fact, in games in which the Broncos topped 130 yards rushing, they are 7-0. When they have play-action passes working and can slow down defensive fronts, they are difficult to beat. And with their defense, they can control the tempo of a game.
Defensively the Broncos are one of the best in the NFL. They led the league in total defense and pass defense while placing third in rush defense. Since the Pats lost leading rusher LeGarrette Blount to a season-ending injury in Week 14, they’ve averaged 66 rushing yards over their last four games and had just 38 in Sunday’s win over Kansas City.
Limiting New England’s run game will allow the Broncos to tee off on Brady, who they sacked three times and pressured numerous other times. Denver led the NFL with 52 sacks and edge rushers Demarcus Ware and Von Miller will try to exploit a patchwork offensive line.
The Broncos have been tested several times this season and proved they can win the close games. Sunday’s 23-16 win over Pittsburgh was the 13th game they played that was decided by seven points or fewer. The Broncos are 10-3 in those games.
The win over the Steelers was also their sixth against a team that qualified for the postseason. The Broncos are 3-0 in overtime games and have scored five touchdowns on defense. In short, they’re used to playing close to the edge, or what Manning has called “that playoff-type football.”
While Brady has gotten the better of Manning in their individual battle, holding an 11-5 edge, the story’s a bit different come playoff time. The quarterbacks split the four postseason meetings. However, Manning has been victorious in the last two and is 2-1 against Brady in championship games. Also, neither quarterback has beaten the other on the road since 1997.
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