Last year when the San Diego Chargers were beaten by the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in a tightly-contested game from start to finish, Jim Nantz appropriated referred to them as the best 2-4 team in football. They finished as the best 4-12 team in football. The Chargers badly need a renaissance, and they're good candidates to do it as well in the wide open AFC West. They've got a real uphill climb and have Father Time working against them as well though, and that's why the oddsmakers don't have a heck of a lot of faith in them.
San Diego Chargers Regular Season Win Total Odds at BookMaker.eu
Chargers Over 7 Wins ( -130 )
Chargers Under 7 Wins ( +100 )
It's tough to say that the Chargers shouldn't win at least seven games this year, knowing that they did at least that every single season from 2004 through 2014. However, there are some glaring holes which need to be fixed from last season, and we're not sure enough was done in the offseason to do just that.
The biggest thing San Diego couldn't do was rush the football. Melvin Gordon was a brutal disappointment in his freshman campaign, and though Danny Woodhead was healthy and was a nice do-it-all out of the backfield, he was never capable of running the ball 20 times in a game like the Chargers really needed.
They also couldn't stop the run at all. Ranking No. 31 in rushing and No. 27 in rush defenses tell you all you need to know. Bringing in Joey Bosa should help fortify the pass rush, but we're not sure he's a great run stopper. That said, if the DBs know they've got two great pass rushers in Bosa and Melvin Ingram heading to the passer, they can jam a little more at the line of scrimmage, and the front seven can stay at home a little longer to defend against the run.
Philip Rivers can still sling the ball all over the place, but he really wasn't effective last year. Sure, throwing for 4,792 yards is nice, but so much of that was in garbage time when games were already lost.
It would also help if Rivers could find a consistent set of receivers. Keenan Allen played just eight games before he suffered a season-ending injury. Antonio Gates was in the lineup for just 11 games. Malcom Floyd missed a game. Stevie Johnson sat for six games. Dontrelle Inman missed two. Ladarius Green was out for three. You're not winning games when you've got that many guys out of the fold at the same position.
2016 San Diego Chargers Schedule
Opening betting lines for the Chargers in parentheses
Week 1: @ Chiefs ( +7 )
Week 2: vs. Jaguars ( -2.5 )
Week 3: @ Colts ( +5.5 )
Week 4: vs. Saints ( -3 )
Week 5: @ Raiders ( +4.5 )
Week 6: vs. Broncos ( +3 )
Week 7: @ Falcons ( +3 )
Week 8: @ Broncos ( +7 )
Week 9: vs. Titans ( -4.5 )
Week 10: vs. Dolphins ( -1 )
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: @ Texans ( +4.5 )
Week 13: vs. Buccaneers ( -2 )
Week 14: @ Panthers ( +10 )
Week 15: vs. Raiders ( +1 )
Week 16: @ Browns ( -2 )
Week 17: vs. Chiefs
Though some of these games on the East Coast can certainly be flipped to 1:00 p.m. ET starts, with its initial schedule, the NFL did the Chargers some favors by scheduling late afternoon road games to avoid the dreaded 10:00 a.m. PT start times as much as possible. That should give the Bolts a little bit more of a chance in some of these away contests. Their road record doesn't have to be sterling to beat this win total, remember.
As it is, the Chargers are favored in five of their first 15 games of the season, and several others are a de facto coin flip. That's not bad for a team which is lined at just seven wins this season and should be remembered.
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The Chargers went just 3-9 last year in games decided by a single score, and that's a really good indication that they're getting ready to trend back in the other direction. Rivers wasn't pick-happy as he has been in the past, and as long as he keeps control of the football, this offense should be improved. We can't imagine the Chargers' running backs all averaging under four yards per carry again this year.
Throw in the relatively easy last place schedule and a weakened AFC West, and the makings are there for the Chargers to become competitive once again. Though they won't be good enough to get into the postseason, the Bolts can finish second in the AFC West with an 8-8 or 9-7 record.
NFL Odds: San Diego Chargers Over 7 Wins
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