Analyzing the San Francisco 49ers Regular Season Win Total

2016-NFL-San-Francisco-49ers-Betting-Odds

No one really knew what to expect out of Chip Kelly when he first came into the NFL to coach the Eagles. As we came to find out, he completely tore down a team which wasn't far from contending and turned it into a unit which was a complete disaster in a hurry.

Kelly has resurfaced immediately though, taking over the San Francisco 49ers in hopes of resurrecting another situation which fell apart quickly from the point that Jim Harbaugh was essentially jettisoned out of town.

San Francisco 49ers Regular Season Win Total Odds at BookMaker.eu
49ers Over 5.5 Wins ( -105 )
49ers Under 5.5 Wins ( -125 )

The 49ers are going to be interesting, if nothing else. They may or may not end up giving Colin Kaepernick a chance to be a starting quarterback again, and they may or may not let Blaine Gabbert really have another shot at leading a franchise for the long run. Their wide receivers are completely useless, and their offensive line seems to be makeshift.

Yet are we really doubting the offensive genius that is Chip Kelly? If there's a man who can pull this off, he's the one who feels like he should be able to so long as he gets guys to buy into his system. That, of course, is to be determined.

Defensively, we do see some hope. Ahmad Brooks, NaVorro Bowman, DeForest Buckner and Ian Williams make up the beginnings of a formidable unit, and we have to remember that the Niners aren't far removed from having one of the most dangerous defenses in the NFL.

2016 San Francisco 49ers Schedule

Opening betting lines for the 49ers in parentheses

Week 1: vs. Rams ( +2 )
Week 2: @ Panthers ( +11.5 )
Week 3: @ Seahawks ( +14 )
Week 4: vs. Cowboys ( +3 )
Week 5: vs. Cardinals ( +6 )
Week 6: @ Bills ( +7 )
Week 7: vs. Buccaneers ( PK )
Week 8: Bye
Week 9: vs. Saints ( PK )
Week 10: @ Cardinals ( +10.5 )
Week 11: vs. Patriots ( -6 )
Week 12: @ Dolphins ( +5 )
Week 13: @ Bears ( +5 )
Week 14: vs. Jets ( PK )
Week 15: @ Falcons ( +5 )
Week 16: @ Rams ( +5.5 )
Week 17: vs. Seahawks

Are you sure this is a last place schedule? It isn't all that surprising that the Niners don’t have a single game in which they're projected to be favored, but what did they do to deserve having to play games against the Panthers, Seahawks (twice), Cardinals (twice) and Patriots? If there's one win in that mix (and that's a big if!), most would be surprised.

QUICK PICK

Most are just going to write off the Niners right away and assume they're not going anywhere in a hurry, but Kelly has never had a team be this bad in his entire coaching career. Even if San Francisco finishes 6-10, it's still going to have exceeded its total, and we do think there's some magic which could be brewing here, especially if Kaepernick is allowed to run this Kelly offense instead of Gabbert.

Let's not forget that Kelly turned an offense around Mark Sanchez into a relatively formidable one in Philly before things fell apart.

If the NFL has truly figured out Kelly, the 49ers will be a disaster and will probably struggle to win more than a couple games. However, if you really believe in the man as we do, the change of scenery might do him as much good as it will ultimately do the Eagles. The fact that Kelly hasn't come into San Fran and blown everything up immediately tells us he thinks he's got a team he can work with. If that's the case, the 49ers could end up being one of the pleasant surprises in the league and could even excel to threaten the .500 mark.

NFL Odds: San Francisco 49ers Over 5.5 Wins

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