Dallas has to be the most frightened undefeated team in the NFL after losing star quarterback Tony Romo for a few months with a broken collarbone. The Falcons are the most unlikely unbeaten, and one will no longer be without a loss following Sunday’s meeting. Despite the loss of Romo and Dez Bryant, the Cowboys are still BookMaker’s favorite to win the NFC East at +115, though their Super Bowl odds tumbled.
ODDS
Atlanta opened as a 1.5-point favorite on the road with a total of 44. The loss of Tony Romo swayed the line in favor of the Falcons and also kept the total relatively low. The Cowboys are 6-9 SU in games without Romo since he became the starter in 2006.
KEY INJURIES
Tevin Coleman – Was removed from last week’s game with a fractured rib and is out indefinitely. He was carted off the field in the second quarter after rushing for 32 yards and a touchdown on nine carries. Devonta Freeman will assume the starting job in the Falcons’ backfield.
Tony Romo – Went down with a broken collarbone and will be out six to eight weeks, according to reports. He will not have surgery and is a candidate for the injured reserved/designated to return list. Brandon Weeden takes over as the starter.
Jason Witten – Sustained two sprained ankles and a bruised knee last week, but remained in the game. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday.
KEY MISMATCH
With Dez Bryant sidelined with a broken foot, Atlanta’s Julio Jones may be the most explosive receiver in the league. Jones tied a team record with 13 receptions last week and is on pace for 176 in 2015. He’s not likely to maintain that pace, but Jones has elevated the Falcons and Matt Ryan into an offense that has some punch. Ryan threw for 363 yards and one touchdown last week and is averaging 330.5 pass yards through two games. His favorite target, obviously, is Jones, but Ryan completed passes to seven different receivers against the Giants while targeting 10. Spreading the ball around like that doesn’t allow the defense to key on Jones since there are so many weapons in the passing game.
KEY STAT
32.0 – Dallas’ opponent third down conversion rate. The Cowboys were stellar in their win at Philadelphia, holding the Eagles to two third-down conversions in 11 tries, allowing just seven yards rushing and 226 yards total. Atlanta has converted 48.4 percent of their third down opportunities.
BETTING ANGLE
With their lethal passing duo of quarterback Tony Romo and receiver Dez Bryant out for at least the next two months, the Cowboys will have to find a way to survive until they return – assuming they do return. In the past, the top-heavy roster the Cowboys put together would be done at this point. But credit Dallas for changing its approach the last few years, managing to develop some depth and talent on the back end of its roster. It won’t be easy, especially as the Brandon Weeden-to-Terrance Williams connection doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue like Romo to Dez does. The Cowboys will turn to their physical offensive line and rely on the run game behind Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar, while the defense that stifled Philadelphia will have to come up big again.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
This game has all the makings of a huge trap for the Falcons. Coming off two dramatic comeback wins and facing the Cowboys without Bryant and Romo, has to have Atlanta feeling pretty good about their chances of starting 3-0. But the Boys have a deep roster, the best offensive line in the game and a defense that held Philly to just 226 total yards last week. Dallas isn’t just about Romo and Bryant. The Cowboys will rely on the running game to control the clock and the short passing game with backs and Witten to keep Weeden out of pressure situations. Jones will get his catches for Atlanta, but the Dallas D will limit the big plays to come away with a win.
Dallas 24, Atlanta 21
BookMaker opened the spread for this Sunday game at -1.5 in favor of the Falcons. The NFL odds total surfaced at 44. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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