The last time the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers met a Super Bowl title was at stake. Things are much different just three seasons later and neither team looks like a contender when they meet Sunday at the site of Super Bowl 50. The Ravens make their fourth cross country trip and will look to cover for the first time this season after going 0-4-1 ATS in their first five.
ODDS
Baltimore opened as a 3-point favorite and the line was wagered down to -2. The Ravens have failed to cover in a game this season and are 3-10-1 in their last 14 games in October. The total opened at 43.5 and spiked a half-point to 44.
KEY INJURIES
Justin Forsett – The Ravens top running back injured his ankle in the fourth quarter last week and didn’t return. He was held out of practice this week but hasn’t been ruled out. Lorenzo Taliaferro was put on injured reserve with a foot injury, leaving rookie Buck Allen as the only other running back on the roster until a roster move is made.
Reggie Bush – Has been a bust – or busted – so far in his first season with the Niners. The backup running back saw limited action last week before aggravating a calf injury he originally sustained on opening night. He’s listed as questionable. Jarryd Hayne was taking first team snaps in practice earlier in the week with Carlos Hyde shelved due to a sore foot. Hyde is likely to play on Sunday.
KEY MISMATCH
San Francisco had a number of positives to build on, despite the loss to the Giants last week. And these should be factors in the eventual outcome of Sunday’s game. After sputtering for three weeks, the Niners offense showed signs of life against New York, and will now look to take advantage of Baltimore’s 24th-ranked defense after surrendering 505 yards in last week’s overtime loss to Cleveland. Josh McCown lit up the Ravens secondary with a franchise record 457 passing yards, leading the Browns back from a 21-9 third quarter deficit. Injuries to cornerbacks Lardarius Webb, Will Davis and pass rusher Elvis Dumervil aided in the struggles. Davis tore his ACL, while Webb and Dumervil are uncertain for this week, leaving some gaping holes in an already suspect group. The Ravens do a decent job against the run with an average of just over 100 yards allowed per game. But, as we saw in Week 5 against the league’s then-best rushing defense, Hyde was able to prove the 49ers can still effectively move the ball on the ground.
KEY STAT
15.0 – San Francisco’s points per game average. Despite scoring a season-high 27 last week, the Niners are last in the NFL. Baltimore ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 27.4 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
The 49ers have given Bay Area football fans very little to cheer about in 2015. The one thing San Francisco has been able to do – and do well – is move the chains on third down. The Niners have converted on 41 percent of their third down tries. Considering how bad the offense has been, that’s a juicy number. Last week against the Giants, San Francisco converted on eight of its 14 third downs kept the chains moving and the offense on the field long enough to cover the 7.5-point spread. Baltimore is making its fourth cross country road trip in six weeks and is in a tough spot. The Ravens have been unable to finish off opponent’s drives, allowing a 49.37 third down conversion rate – second worst in the NFL. That’s allowed teams to dominate the time of possession battle. The Ravens were tortured on third down last week, allowing the Browns to convert 12 of 19 times in that situation.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Neither team has done a particularly good job of stopping opponents from scoring, so there is value on the over play. But the Niners have performed much better on their home turf, where they’ve allowed a total of 20 points in two games. Another cross country trip and a banged up defense doesn’t bode well for the Ravens, who have underachieved this season. Colin Kaepernick had a nice game last week, throwing for 262 yards and two scores without an interception. Sure the Niners lost, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but Kap looked smooth running the unit. SF will build off last week’s performance and pull out a win over a weary and depleted Ravens squad.
San Francisco 27, Baltimore 24
BookMaker opened the spread for this Sunday game at -3 in favor of the Ravens. The NFL odds total surfaced at 43.5. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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