There doesn't seem to be all that much of a contest from a fantasy football standpoint between Philip Rivers and Alex Smith. Rivers is the gunslinger who seems to find a way to keep the San Diego Chargers in games no matter what the situation calls for, while Smith is going to take as few chances as possible and will be happy settling for field goals for the Kansas City Chiefs instead of going for touchdowns.
However, it might not be quite as cut and dry as you think when it comes to a prospective fantasy football matchup between these two.
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Let's get the raw numbers out of the way first. Smith only has 10 touchdown passes this year, and his average of 19.2 fantasy points per game really isn't any good. Rivers meanwhile, already has over 3,000 passing yards and should easily go over 5,000 this season if he stays healthy. He's averaging 25.5 fantasy points per game and should crush Smith on most days.
However, we aren't so sure that's going to be the case.
We really want to know what that offense around Rivers is going to look like. It's far too early to tell who is and is not going to be playing this week for San Diego, but we know that both tight ends, Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green as well as Malcom Floyd are going to start this week as questionable propositions. Floyd certainly isn't likely to play.
If the worst case scenario pans out, the Chargers are going to likely have to stretch the field with wide receivers without any healthy and viable tight ends, and that means men like Stevie Johnson and Dontrelle Inman are going to have to be big parts of the passing game.
Furthermore, the Chiefs have a defense which hasn't allowed more than 13 points in a game in three straight victories. Their pass rush is starting to once again look like one of the best in the league, and that could be horrible news for an offensive line which isn't likely to have King Dunlap out there, its best pass blocker off the edge.
What's worse for the Chargers here is that their defense has been a sieve. Do the Chiefs stink offensively? Of course they do. That said, every team who has played against this San Diego side this year has scored at least 22 points, and the average score of 27.7 points per game has to have bettors salivating.
We've seen Smith put together a couple decent games in the past, and it might not take as much as you think to beat Rivers in this one if the defense can come up with another big game and keep him on his back. With Rivers at his worst with no help around him, it's entirely plausible to think that he could be held in the teens in fantasy points. That said, it'll only take two touchdowns from Smith to get the job done. He isn't the best quarterback ever, but he's going against a defense which has a tendency of allowing plenty of red zone scores.
If Smith turns out to be a huge underdog in this matchup for fantasy betting purposes, we'll have no choice but to take the points and how that at least a couple KC drives can end in the end zone instead of settling for Cairo Santos field goals.
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