Russell Wilson is going up against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL this week, but there's a real question as to whether his Seattle Seahawks are deserving favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers. For our purposes though, we don't so much care who ends up on which side of the four-point spread as much as we do whether Wilson will outduel Antonio Brown in our hypothetical fantasy football matchup.
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It's really tough to bet against Brown right now. He's had 27 catches and 423 receiving yards in his last two games combined, and he's had three catches of at least 40 yards in that stretch.
This is a man who has already had a great full season of work, catching 79 passes for 1,141 yards and five scores, giving him an average of 16.8 fantasy points per game. In games which Ben Roethlisberger has played from virtual start to finish (including the Week 10 game in which Roethlisberger didn't start but came off the bench in the first quarter when Landry Jones got hurt), Brown has averaged 9.7 receptions and a comical 147.1 yards per game.
However, when you go back and look at it, the Patriots, 49ers, Rams, Browns, Raiders, Bengals and Chiefs don't exactly have the greatest pass defenses on the face of the earth.
This is a real test against Richard Sherman. We're a bit worried about Sherman, knowing that he has had bad games against men like Larry Fitzgerald and A.J. Green of late. Sherman is doing a lot more gambling than he probably should, and though that might ultimately be good for the fate of the Legion of Boom, it's not good if you're fading the man he's supposed to be covering. An interception and an incomplete pass are worth the same zero fantasy points, but a 60-yard touchdown is worth 10 in one shot.
That's why Brown is probably the sharper play here against Seahawk Wilson.
Wilson does have a juicy matchup against a Pittsburgh defense allowing an amazingly high 26.3 completions and 278.4 yards per game.
With Marshawn Lynch out of the lineup, we can't imagine that Thomas Rawls is going to get as much work in high-leverage spots in a much tougher game than he had last week against the 49ers. The Steelers are going to make Wilson throw the ball to beat them, and that could play into our hands as bettors in a fantasy matchup as well.
Wilson is averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game this year, and we've seen him really have some monster outings like when he had 33 points against the 49ers last week. He can throw the ball for sure, and using Tyler Lockett more gives him the ability to stretch out the field in two different ways. Not only is Lockett available on fly routes, but Jimmy Graham, for as underused as he's been this year, can still put a lot of pressure on linebackers and safeties trying to cover him over the middle of the field.
Wilson should be laying points in this fantasy matchup, but it's not a given that he will be. There might be a lot of sharp bettors here on Pittsburgh for the game, but Wilson is the smarter of the two plays for fantasy football purposes over the Steelers' top threat in Brown.
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