No one is going to debate the fact that the New York Giants are the better team against the San Francisco 49ers. It's really easy to make a case for New York in this game from a betting standpoint, knowing that the Niners have been a wreck and have to travel all the way across the country. But is it a smart idea to play Eli Manning against Colin Kaepernick in BookMaker's fantasy matchup? That's a much different conversation which begs to be had.
Clearly, if this matchup was a pick 'em, we would have no hesitation to play Manning against a guy who couldn't throw a football if his life depended on it. However, we know that won't be the case. Kaepernick is going to be a big underdog for sure in spite of the fact that, at least theoretically, Manning isn't going to be throwing the ball as much in the second half as Kaepernick will since San Francisco will very likely be playing from behind.
There really isn't much of a case for Kaepernick as a fantasy football standout. He has only thrown for more than 165 yards once this year, and he has no touchdowns and five picks in his last two games combined. Two weeks ago, he was worth 5.64 points against the Cardinals, a dreadful number for any starting quarterback.
However, every now and again, Kaepernick is a huge surprise. Against Pittsburgh, he was worth 31.8 fantasy points, largely thanks to the fact that he was playing from behind and going against a team which really doesn't have an elite level secondary or a great pass rush.
You know, sort of like what Kaepernick is going to be playing against this time around.
The Giants, in fact, have the worst pass defense in the NFL at 316.2 yards per game allowed, and they have given up over 350 passing yards twice already this season. Heck, Kirk Cousins threw for 316 yards against this unit.
Now, Kaepernick is no Tony Romo or Matt Ryan, but we think he definitely has some value here as an underdog, especially after Anquan Boldin went off on him and his teammates on the sidelines after an uninspired effort against Green Bay last week in which the club scored a total of just three points.
Furthermore, we really don't know what to make of Manning. Sure, he was one of the last quarterbacks in the league to throw a pick this year, but when you go back and really take a closer look at it, he only averages 21.2 fantasy points per game. He doesn't have a single 100+ yard passing game, and his rapport with Odell Beckham Jr. doesn't quite look as strong in 2015 as it did at the tail end of last year.
The 49ers have been up and down as a secondary. They were great last week against Green Bay, just as they were fantastic against Minnesota in Week 1. Sure, the games in the middle were awful, but if you had to pick the stronger side of the ball for the Niners, you'd certainly pick the defense.
Furthermore, flow of the game is important. The Giants led the Bills all week last week, and they only threw the ball 35 times, completing 20 passes. Those are modest numbers in comparison to what we would expect from some of the bigger quarterbacks in the league.
Certainly, it wouldn't be shocking to see Kaepernick worth very little in terms of fantasy value, but this might not be the best spot for Manning either. Taking the points both in real life and in the fantasy world in this matchup might end up being the winning ticket.
BookMaker opened the spread for this Sunday soiree at -7 in favor of the New York Giants. The NFL odds total surfaced at 43. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone or tablet with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The game between the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers is scheduled for Sunday, October 11, 2015, at 8:30 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium. The game will be broadcast regionally on NBC.
