Two weeks ago, Sam Bradford went down with a concussion, ending his somewhat improbable streak of games as the starting quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles. That leaves Mark Sanchez to go up against Matt Stafford of the Detroit Lions for fantasy football matchup purposes, and there's a real chance the edge is going to go to Sanchez in spite of the fact that neither quarterback is going to find a ton of success against the other defense on Thanksgiving Day.
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Stafford is no stranger to Thanksgiving Day football. He's played more games on a short week in his career than almost any other quarterback in the NFL, believe it or not. The results have been mixed.
However, it's easy to bet with your heart instead of your brain when it comes to the Lions. This is a team we're used to seeing winging the ball up and down the field, and it's easy to justify that as a possibility once again on Thursday, knowing that this running game with Joique Bell, Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick just isn't very good.
Theoretically anyway, you should be right. Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson still form an awesome receiving corps, and there have been moments where both have looked completely dominant. The Eagles don't exactly have a fantastic secondary, and there are moments when these corners look lost when the blitz doesn't get home from the front seven.
Stafford though, has no history of taking advantage this year. He only has 15 touchdown passes in 10 games, putting him on a pace for less than 30 for the year, and he's only good for 19.5 fantasy points per game. That's not a horrible number, but considering the fact he's only a couple years removed from 21.7 fantasy points per game and has a 5,000+ yard season under his belt as well, those facts are disappointing.
Remember that Detroit scored 21 points in the first half of football of the year on the road against the Chargers. Since that point, the offense has just 16 offensive touchdowns in 9.5 games.
That's why Sanchez is an appealing play here.
It's easy to just look back at what Sanchez did last week against the Buccaneers and cringe. The defense did him no favors, but the bottom line is that he was awful against Tampa Bay, throwing balls all over the place that were nowhere near receivers. Still, he threw the ball 41 times on the day, and it's hard to see how he doesn't do something similar in this one, and any quarterback who is asked to throw that many times is sure to rack up some fantasy points, even if just in garbage time.
We don't care how the points come, though. Sanchez had 18.9 fantasy points last week, and that's after getting picked off three times. We suspect the backup quarterback is going to get intercepted at least once, but three times for a second straight game is unlikely.
If Sanchez throws two touchdown passes or more, something which has happened against the Lions six times this year, including three times in four games, we can't see a circumstance in which he doesn't beat Stafford in fantasy points, something which might seem like a bit of a shocking upset if you merely look at history and bet with what you think you're seeing instead of what the Lions have truly been capable of on the field.
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions is scheduled for Thursday, November 26, 2015, at 12:30 p.m. ET at Ford Field. The game will be broadcast regionally on FOX.
