For just the third time in the last 17 seasons, the NFL play offs features the Detroit Lions. This time around, the Lions will collide with the Seattle Seahawks. The Lions have lost seven straight Wild Card Games and have last found themselves in a non-Wild Card playoff game back in 1991. Can the No. 6 Lions beat history and advance against the No. 3 Seahawks? It seems unlikely given Detroit is sliding into the playoffs having lost three straight games.
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NFL Playoff Odds at BookMaker.eu
Lions +7
Seahawks -7
Over/Under 42.5
Odds Analysis
Seattle opened as touchdown favorites and the spread has only grown from there and now sits at eight points.
Detroit has failed to cover the spread now in four straight games after a stretch in the middle of the year where they went 7-1 ATS. The Lions magic has begun to wear off. They won most of their games this year with late game heroics, but when going up against playoff caliber teams the last three weeks, they’ve consistently come up short, falling by 11 to the Giants, 21 to the Cowboys and seven to the Packers.
The Seahawks failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games, including just barely beating the 49ers to wrap up the season.
Given these trends, it’s likely that odds makers have relied on these team’s playoff histories—and the Seahawks playoff success at home—in favoring Seattle so highly.
Team and Coaching Playoff History
History doesn’t favor the Lions. Detroit has played in seven Wild Card games since 1993 and has lost all seven. They’re 0-8 in Wild Card games in their history.
They last won a playoff game when they beat the Cowboys on January 5, 1992 and are 0-10 in road playoff games since the beginning of the Super Bowl era. This doesn’t bode well.
If those stats weren’t bad enough for Detroit, it’s an opposite story for the Seahawks. Seattle has now reached the playoffs in five straight seasons and have missed out on postseason play in just one season under Pete Carroll. What’s more daunting for the Lions is that this Seahawks team is undefeated at home in the playoffs under Carroll. They also haven’t lost a home playoff game with Russell Wilson under center. Of course, he typically had more support in the running game than he’s gotten this seasons.
Recent Games of Note
The Seahawks that’ve played so well over the last few years did so on the strength of their defense, but Seattle’s defense—while good—hasn’t quite been as dominant as in past seasons. The last two games, the Seahawks gave up 25 to the 49ers and 31 to the Cardinals, neither had very strong seasons.
Matthew Stafford, meanwhile, has had some really great performances this year. He’s completing more than 65-percent of his passes and has totaled 4,327 yards. That’s more than either of the last two seasons and he’s done this without Calvin Johnson. He is the team’s offense. They’re averaging just 81.9 rushing yards per game to rank No. 30 in the NFL, but are No. 11 in the air.
Both the offense and the defense, however, are vulnerable against the better teams in the league as the Lions exploited matchups against weaker opponents.
The defense over the last two games has slumped, giving up a combined 73-points. In a game against the Lions’ division rival Packers, Aaron Rodgers threw for 300 yards and four touchdowns in route to a win. The Lions could use a similar formula as both teams are driven by the passing game.
Detroit’s offense was silenced by the Giants and while we noted the Seahawks defense isn’t quite as dominant as in the past, it still ranks No. 5 in total yards allowed and No. 3 in fewest points allowed per game. Given that, New York is a good gauge as to the Lions’ talent level against a better defense and in that game, the Lions scored a mere six points.
Seattle’s also a bit vulnerable against the NFL’s better teams. They played in a division with little competition and thus were not really challenged. The Lions will be desperate to end their postseason winless streak and will play with plenty of urgency. The defense will do it’s best to exploit a suspect Seattle offensive line.
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