We wrap up a fun Divisional Round with a great matchup featuring a red-hot Aaron Rodgers carrying the Green Bay Packers on his shoulders through the end of the regular season and into the postseason against the NFC’s top-seeded Dallas Cowboys. Can the Cowboy’s rookie tandem of Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott help Dallas advance past the Divisional Round for the first time since 1995 or are we in for yet another disappointment from America’s Team?
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NFL Playoff Odds at BookMaker.eu
Packers +4
Cowboys -4
Over/Under 51.5
Odds Analysis
Aaron Rodgers went into the Wild Card game against the Giants last weekend with a 121 passer rating over his last six starts and topped that, completing 62.5-percent of his passes for 362 yards and four touchdowns, giving him a rating of 125.2. He’s now thrown 19 touchdowns without an interception in his last seven starts and has thrown at least four touchdowns in three straight games.
With Rodgers on fire, Green Bay has been on fire, too. The Packers are 7-0 in those seven games and 6-1 ATS. They’ve covered as both the favorite and the underdog. And the over has paid out now in five straight Packers games with the offense lighting it up.
Given Rodgers’ hot streak—and the strong Cowboys’ offense—the total has been sight high and continues to rise while the spread is also ticking upwards in favor of the Cowboys.
Dallas did fall back down to earth in the latter part of the season after a string of 11 straight wins, but that streak was bookended by losses to the same Giants team the Packers beat to get to this matchup. The Cowboys also went just 1-5 ATS in their last six games they still managed to win four of them SU.
Team and Coaching Playoff History
What was a powerhouse team in the 90s with three Super Bowl rings in four seasons has turned into the cursed team since. They haven’t gotten to an AFC Conference Championship Game since their last Super Bowl title in 1995 and have made the playoffs just once since Jason Garrett took the reins of the team in the 2010 season.
Garrett’s team is just 1-1 in the postseason during his tenure, losing the a Divisional Game against none other than the Green Bay Packers in 2014.
There’s no doubt that the Cowboys had the better season and were the better team over the 17-week schedule, but Mike McCarthy’s team are postseason pros having made the postseason for now eight straight seasons with a Super Bowl title in that span.
The Packers also handily took care of the Giants in the Wild Card round. Even that’s more playoff experience than the Cowboy’s two most important players have as Elliott and Prescott are already well beyond the number of games they’re used to playing in a year.
Recent Games of Note
Green Bay manhandled the Giants in the Wild Card game, winning 38-13 and giving up a single touchdown on defense despite a plethora of injuries, particularly in the secondary.
The injuries continue to pile up for Green Bay who will be without Jordy Nelson who suffered a pair of fractured ribs against New York. Along with the laundry list of defensive players out, he joins a few big name offensive pieces in Eddie Lacy and James Starks.
In the game, however, it was all Rodgers who had no problem finding Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. Cobb’s return was big as he caught three touchdown passes.
Rodgers and company easily handled a New York team that’s got a good passing game, despite all the injuries. They also easily beat a team that beat Dallas not once, but twice this year.
Of course, on the flip side of that, the Packers did fall to the Cowboys in their only head-to-head meeting back in Week 6. The Cowboys won the game 30-16 as Elliot rushed for 157 yards and Prescott threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns. Dallas’s defense really took care of Green Bay’s running game which will be on its third and fourth string backs on Sunday and even controlled Rodgers to some extent though he did throw for 294 yards.
For Sunday’s game, the Cowboys have the deeper and healthier team. They should win but then again Rodgers—the former MVP—is playing better than he’s ever played and that’s just scary.
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