After years of futility, the Oakland Raiders have put together an impressive season that could all be tumbling down as a result of an untimely injury to Derek Carr. Now the Carr-less Raiders will host the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs with hopes of advancing, but little chance of capitalizing on what has been a great season. Houston, meanwhile, gets a boost as their now favored to win.
Don't miss the NFL playoff game from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas at 4:35 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 7, 2017. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN/ABC.
NFL Playoff Odds at BookMaker.eu
Raiders +3
Texans -3
Over/Under 37.5
Odds Analysis
The odds have Houston as the favorite in this game as a result of the Carr injury, but if the Raiders’ performance in Week 17 is any indication of this offense’s ability without their starting QB, this could get ugly for Oakland.
Despite that, the Raiders have managed to surprise many doubters over the course of the season and that could always happen again. We’ve seen back-up QBs lead teams to victory in the postseason before and in any one game weird things can happen.
Overall, the Raiders have played excellent ball going 12-4 SU and ATS and have typically been a good bet to go over the total thanks to an offense ranked No. 7 in the NFL with 26 PPG and a slightly below average defense in terms of points allowed. In Week 17, however, the under paid out and the team failed to come close to covering the spread with the Raiders falling to Denver by 18 on the road.
As for Houston, the spread has been a challenge. They’re 9-7 ATS overall, but are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
Opposite of the Raiders, Houston got to where they are based on a defense ranked first in fewest total yards allowed despite an offense with little production in the air.
The Texan’s recent struggles ATS have helped keep this spread in check, but without Carr, it’s time to jump off the bandwagon and take Houston to cover before the spread grows further.
Team and Coaching Playoff History
In his second year in Oakland, Jack Del Rio has seen a five game swing in his team from 7-9 to 12-4, equaling the record of his 2005 Jaguars; the best record of any Del Rio coached team.
That year, Jacksonville, fell to the Patriots in the AFC Wild Card Game. The Jags suffered a similar fate two years later and those were the only two teams Del Rio ever took to the playoffs, until this season.
The Raiders will try to avoid the same fate as the Jags, but it’s an uphill battle now with the injury to Carr.
Oakland as a team has suffered a long postseason draught so it’s nice that they at least get into the playoffs. The last time this team was in the playoffs was the 2002 season when the Raiders went all the way to the Super Bowl before losing.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the gridiron, Bill O’Brien replicated the 9-7 season of a year ago for Houston, once again taking the AFC South title. This matchup, however, could allow the Texas to advance a bit further after they lost in the Wild Card game to the Chiefs last year.
Since becoming a team in 2002, this will be just the fourth time that the Texans have been a playoff team so we’re dealing with two teams without too much postseason history.
Recent Games of Note
The Raiders have three more wins than the Texans and should be the heavy favorites in this game if not for the loss of Derek Carr. The third year starter has shown steady improvement in each of the last three years in the passing game and really improved this year, limiting his interceptions to just six while throwing for 3,937 yards and 28 touchdowns.
Everything was finally coming together for Oakland until Week 16 when Carr broke his leg near the end of the game.
At the time, it was known that it would be a major blow, but the team looked just awful in their 24-6 Week 17 loss to the Broncos. The offense couldn’t get anything going with Matt McGloin under center though they looked a bit better under rookie Connor Cook, but there’s little reason for optimism for this offense. Not only was that loss a major hit to the Raiders’ confidence, but it also bumped them down to the No. 3 seed and into the wildcard round.
Fortunately for the Raiders, the Texans are still beatable even without Carr, but the team will need Latavius Murray and the running game to carry the load.
These two teams met in Week 11 with the Raiders winning the game 27-20 at home. They’ll host the game again, but will need to make up for the 295 yards and three touchdown passes Carr racked up and neither McGloin nor Cook will do that on their own. The positive, is there’s plenty of room in the running game to make that up. Oakland ran the ball just 20 times, but some of that was because they managed just 30 yards.
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