In what looks to be the tightest matchup of the Divisional Round, the Kansas City Chiefs actually opened as underdogs at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Although that’s since flipped, it goes to show how close this game could be. Eric Berry and Marcus Peters are part of a killer Kansas City secondary that led the league in interceptions while Pittsburgh is all about the trio of Big Ben, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Smith as one of the best trio of skill position players in the sport.
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NFL Playoff Odds at BookMaker.eu
Steelers -1
Chiefs +1
Over/Under 46.5
Odds Analysis
The spread opened with the Chiefs one-point pups at home, but has since flipped to favor Kansas City by 1.5 despite a disappointing showing when these two teams squared off in the regular season.
Of course, that loss occurred before the team’s Week 5 bye. After that point, Kansas City went on a roll, winning five straight and eventually going 10-2 to close out the year. They weren’t quite as good ATS, but still went 8-4 ATS in that final three-quarters of the season.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh got the commanding win against the Chiefs when these two teams last faced each other and easily covered the spread.
The Steelers also closed out the season on a high note with seven straight wins immediately following a four game losing streak. During those seven games, Pittsburgh was 5-1-1 ATS. They then proceeded to destroy Miami in the Wild Card game easily covering a lofty 11-point spread.
Team and Coaching Playoff History
The Steelers are one of the sports’ great franchises, the Chiefs not quite so much. Pittsburgh has six Super Bowl titles in eight appearances. Kansas City has one title in two appearances.
Kansas City lost in the divisional round a year ago after winning their Wild Card showdown, falling to the Patriots by a touchdown. Pittsburgh followed a similar fate, losing to Denver.
Just 44-years old, Mike Tomlin is already a veteran of the sport with two AFC titles and a Super Bowl ring in his 10 year coaching career. Andy Reid on the other side, is in his 18th season and fourth in Kansas City, but has just a single Conference Title as a head coach between his time with the Eagles and Chiefs. Tomlin is 7-5 in the postseason while Reid is 11-11 and just 1-2 in Kansas City.
Recent Games of Note
The Week 4 meeting of these two teams paints a gloomy picture for the Chiefs. While Kansas City will be at home in Arrowhead Stadium instead of in the Steel City, they’ll still have to overcome a demoralizing 43-14 defeat.
The Steelers jumped out to a huge early lead with 22 first quarter points and Kansas City had nowhere to go from there. While they did score 14 garbage time points in the fourth quarter, they were otherwise held off the scoreboard by Pittsburgh good, but not elite defense.
On the other side, Ben Roethlisberger completed 22 of 27 passes for 300 yards and five touchdowns, matching up with Brown for two of the scores, but ultimately finding Sammie Coates eight times for 79 while Kansas City’s secondary handled Brown. Roethlisberger found four different receivers in the end zone while DeAngelo Williams also pushed the ball into the end zone on the ground while giving Bell a breather.
Speaking of Bell, the star back carried the ball just 18 times, but still tallied 144 yards. We’ve seen the Chiefs’ secondary handle Brown, but they couldn’t shutdown the depth of the team’s receiving core as Roethlisberger still found a way. They also didn’t do much to stop the ground game.
Pittsburgh’s Wild Card win over Miami also tells an important story. Roethlisberger finished up that game with some struggles—and injuries—giving up a pair of picks, but Bell rumbled for 167 yards and two scores with Brown catching both of Big Ben’s touchdown passes and adding three more receptions for 124 total yards. Still, Roethlisberger’s health will be a big factor. Even if he’s not 100-percent, the rest of the offense is strong enough to allow Pittsburgh to overcome the K.C. secondary.
At the same time, look for the Steelers’ defense to continually put the pressure on Alex Smith as it did during Week 4 and contain the running game with a strong defensive front.
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